Why the legendary Lester Piggott is pinning his hopes on Carlton House
EPSOM is a unique racecourse where jockeys can encounter more traffic problems than you will find during the rush hour on the M25, but one man who never had any trouble finding his way around the historic Surrey Downs was Lester Piggott, hero of a record nine Derby victories between 1954 and 1983.
Lester, though now 75, has a racing brain that works as if manufactured by Gillette, and, while the sometimes monosyllabic Ryan Moore, who rides the Queen’s Carlton House in today’s Investec-sponsored classic, is a chatterbox compared to The Long Fellow, Lester still sleeps with a formbook on his bedside table.
Despatched to Newmarket to track down the great man, I found him in terrific form and, having already backed Carlton House before his impressive trial victory in the Dante Stakes at York, I came away with Lester having convinced me to top up my wager.
Then disaster struck, with Carlton House injuring his near-fore after a routine canter on Monday morning. The setback could not have come at a worse time for punters.
However, Lester insists that if anybody can turn what has been a nightmare few days into racing’s greatest fairytale, it is five-times Derby winning trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who overcame a similar mountain in 2003 when Kris Kin bruised a foot treading on a stone a few days before his Blue Riband triumph.
When I asked Lester to pass on some pearls of wisdom as to how to ride this unique course, you could almost see the maestro turning the clock back in his head, from Never Say Die to Teenoso, as he mulled over those magical moments in the saddle.
He said: “I always liked to be one off the rail and in the first six turning for home. Willie Carson got lucky when coming from a mile back on Troy (1979) and Erhaab (1994), and Pat Eddery did a similar Houdini job on Golden Fleece, but if you get behind it can sometimes be a nightmare trying to wriggle your way through. Epsom is not the type of track where you want to be asking too many questions.
“People make a lot about horses not handling the course, and I rode plenty who fell down the hill, but I always found that the good horses coped no problem and if you are riding one who travels during the race you usually find that the gaps will open when you want them. It’s the slow ones who give you the headaches.”
Lester was not only peerless in the saddle but he could assess the various form-lines of a race in an instant, and he has
no doubt that had this been a level playing-field for Carlton House it would be no-contest.
He added: “Strictly judged on form and temperament, you can shuffle the pack any way you like, but you always end up with Carlton House on the top.
“You have to respect Aidan O’Brien and I would find it hard to split Recital and Seville. Many professionals knocked Recital when he won the Derrinstown Stud Trial at Leopardstown, mainly because of his high head-carriage, but, though it’s true that he did hang badly in the closing stages, he had his race won by that stage. I would not expect him to hang at Epsom, where Kieren [Fallon], who will know him that much better now, will probably delay his challenge that bit longer.
“Recital won his Group 1 in France last year on only his second appearance on a racecourse, while Seville beat all except Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. But Carlton House put Seville in his place at York, and you can’t argue with the formbook, so, though they are probably Aidan’s best, maybe they are ‘just horses’.
“I can’t see Native Khan staying the trip, which just leaves Pour Moi, who won a slow-run trial in France. Andre Fabre is a great trainer and he seems keen on Pour Moi, so maybe he is the danger.
“However, the Dante is the best trial, and Carlton House was so impressive at York. There was not a lot of room for him to challenge between Seville and Pisco Sour, but when Ryan asked him to go through the gap the horse did not hesitate. The way he went through the gears suggested to me that he not only has the necessary speed but that he is also brave. True, he pulled hard early on at York, but it was a slow-run trial and he will settle fine when they go that much faster, as they always do in the Derby.”
I asked Lester how important it was for a horse to get through those nail-biting preliminaries without getting into a muck-sweat with which he replied: “In my day, you used to have to walk across the Downs to the start and it was a severe test of some horses’ temperaments. Plenty boiled over when they heard all the noise from the funfair and Vincent [O’Brien] took the trouble to put cotton wool in The Minstrel’s ears in 1977, so he did not start to worry.
“It can be a particular problem on a hot day, but it is a lot easier these days, as once the parade in front of the stands is over the horses are given clearance to canter straight down to the stalls.
“More of a worry would be the no-hopers getting in your way as they start to drop back, and I do think that it is a disgrace that they are being allowed to run Castlemorris King. He is a 500-1 shot, only rated 52, and he has no right to be in the Derby.
“Carlton House’s setback isn’t ideal, but he looked special at York and I really hope he wins for The Queen. It’s ironic, she has tried so many times with home-breds, and here she is with the favourite, a gift horse from Sheikh Mohammed. Amazing!”, said the greatest jockey to ever ride Epsom.
The Investec Derby is part of the QIPCO British Champions Series
(www.britishchampionsseries.com).
DERBY SPREAD BETTING
If you take a gentle stroll down the high street, or even surf the web, you won’t find many bookmakers offering you four places on this afternoon’s Investec Derby. In fact, you won’t find any.
That is, of course, all except for sports spread betting outfit Sporting Index who actually offer that elusive fourth place – each-way backers of Jan Vermeer 12 months ago take note. Sporting offer an ‘index’ on the race where points are allocated for filling each of the first four positions home.
The winning horse is allotted 50 points, the runner-up 30, the third 20 and the fourth 10 points. On that basis, Sporting make a prediction on how many points each horse is likely to end up with just after 4pm today. Four horses will score points and the remaining nine will end up with nothing.
They are predicting that Carlton House will finish with between 23-26 points (if you think he’ll finish first or second you buy at 26, if you think he’ll fare worse you sell at 23) and Pour Moi will end up with around 17-20 points.
There are bound to be plenty of ‘sellers’ of Carlton House on the back of his injury scare, but if he is fully fit, a sell at 23 may well be a risky proposition. Incidentally, Treasure Beach makes plenty of appeal as a buy at 5 with 10 points up for grabs for fourth place.
Sporting also offer match bets between pairs of horses in the race – it doesn’t matter where they finish, you are just betting on the gap between them at the end. There is a cap of 12 lengths which is a nice safety net to have if you’re beaten the length of a county. Carlton House is expected to finish a length in front of Pour Moi – that may be asking a lot if he’s not fully fit.