Why England have overtaken Spain as Women’s Euro 2022 favourites head of their quarter-final
Just two weeks ago, on the eve of Women’s Euro 2022, Spain were widely regarded as the favourites and England had much to do to justify their pre-tournament hype.
A fortnight later, as the two teams prepare to meet in the first quarter-final in Brighton on Wednesday evening, the tables have turned.
While Spain have struggled to live up to their billing as the team to beat, England have blitzed the group stage and are now the shortest-priced team with the bookmakers.
Spain’s popularity with tipsters owed much to the rise of Barcelona in the European club game and their star turn, Ballon d’Or holder Alexia Putellas.
They are not the same team, however – Barca are augmented by international stars such as Norway’s Caroline Graham Hansen – and in any case lost Putellas to an 11th-hour injury.
Jorge Vilda’s side made less than convincing progress from Group B, finishing second after losing to Germany and beating Finland and Denmark.
Even their wins had concerning elements, such as conceding the earliest goal in Women’s Euro history against Finland and only scoring in the 90th minute against Denmark.
England, by contrast, blazed a trail through Group A, hitting their straps after a nervy opening win over Austria and thrashing both Norway and Northern Ireland.
The hosts have set records tumbling: biggest win at a Euros; most goals in the group stage; biggest attendance; first player, in Beth Mead, to score in every group game.
Spain have stayed true to their footballing traditions, recording the highest average possession of any team (73.8 per cent) and completing the most passes in the opposition half.
But they have also exhibited some of its familiar flaws, failing to capitalise on their dominance by scoring just five times from an expected goals of 6.7 – the biggest underperformance relative to xG of any of the quarter-finalists.
Watching them can be maddeningly frustrating, with intricate, one-touch tiki-taka football frequently coming to nothing once they get into the final third.
Their attacking struggles mean they have not scored with a non-penalty shot yet; the rest of Spain’s goals have been headers, after resorting to crosses in the face of deep defences.
The absence of attacking midfielder Putellas has of course blunted their cutting edge, as has the unavailability of her former Barcelona colleague, centre-forward Jenni Hermoso.
It has not been aided by Vilda’s incessant tinkering either: the coach has named three different XIs and switched some players’ positions from game to game.
Former Barcelona and Real Madrid youth player Vilda knows this generation better than anyone, having led them to Euro success at under-17 and under-19 level and been in charge of this team since 2015.
Spain’s senior women have never been past the semi-finals, but are one place above England in the world rankings and beat them at the SheBelieves Cup last year.
Since then England have appointed Women’s Euro 2017 winning coach Sarina Wiegman and unlocked a new level of performance.
In 17 matches under Wiegman – who may be absent from the touchline with Covid-19 – they have won 15, lost none, scored 98 and conceded just three, ultimately replacing Spain as the team to beat.
Spain can expect England to leave more space for them to exploit than other opponents have so far but will have to weigh up how enterprising to be against the free-scoring Lionesses.
“We know they have a lot of threats,” England forward Lauren Hemp said of Spain. “But we also know there are a lot of opportunities to exploit them, so we’ll definitely try to do that.”