What will happen if there is a Brexit? Who knows, economists say
Determining what would happen in the case of a vote for a Brexit on 23 June is incredibly difficult as there are flaws in the information such predictions are based on, a group of economists has said this evening.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the London School of Economics' Alumni Organisation, Dr Andrew Lilico, executive director and principal at European Economics, argued that some of the forecasts which favoured staying in the EU could be unfairly swayed as they contain reference to events, such as influencing parts of the EU's economic mindset to be more similar to our own, that would not happen again in the future.
"Once you've converted somebody, provided they stay converted, you can't make the same gains by converting them again," argued Dr Lilico.
Meanwhile, Dr Eamonn Butler, director of the Adam Smith Institute, pointed out that leaving the EU would be a process, so it was not easy, or even possible, to predict what this would entail.
Dr Butler added that such a process would allow the UK to "take our shopping basket round the world and see what appetite there is for trade deals".
Professor Iain Begg, London School of Economics European Institute and senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe, remarked that it was difficult to determine the level of uncertainty that would exist should there be a Brexit and what the economic impact would be because the forecasts are based heavily on assumptions.
However, Dr Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics at Niesr, pointed out that the referendum decision is "irreversible" and, therefore, the "risks really matter".
"We need to see a lot more evidence before being convinced of a case for Brexit," said Dr Armstrong.
Earlier on today, the IoD released a report based on a poll of its members which found that 63 per cent of its members were in favour of remaining in the EU, although three-quarters also said that the EU was in need of reform.