Welcome to the Green Room: Boris needs to finally deliver Net Zero
As Boris Johnson strides onto the stage at Tory Party Conference he’ll promise the earth – and talk about saving it. The environment is front and centre of British politics now and Boris has made no secret of his ambitions to go green. Last year, in typical style, the PM vowed that Britain could become the “Saudi Arabia of wind power”.
Today he is expected to say that all our electricity will be ‘clean’ by 2035 – meaning it will only come from renewables or nuclear power plants. The pledge will no doubt come with a catchy soundbite.
After all, the PM’s big moments are often the political equivalent of a best man’s speech. Mischievous smile, joke and a fair dose of exaggeration. Just last week he talked about propelling rockets into space from Cornwall and creating “Galactic Britain”.
But on this shift to low-carbon power generation, the PM will have to do far more than dish out a headline. He has to deliver.
The collapse of several gas suppliers in recent days highlights our vulnerability to energy ‘shocks’. Boris is right to talk about the need for a big programme of nuclear power plants and wind turbines, because unless Britain starts building the lights will go out.
A paper by Professor Tim Ambler, published by the Adam Smith Institute today, illustrates the energy supply crunch that’s coming our way as we move away from coal. Ofgem presumes peak winter demand for power of almost 60GW.
Nuclear generation peaked in 1995 and by 2035 the entirety of Britain’s current nuclear power fleet will have gone. Only one replacement plant, Hinkley Point C, is under construction. And that will connect to the Grid in 2026, nine years late. Ministers are once more talking about a new nuclear plant in Anglesey, another in Sizewell and a fleet of small modular reactors.
Yet it’s nowhere near enough. The Government’s big bet is wind. The PM wants to increase offshore wind production from 10GW of electricity a year to 60GW.
Yet Professor Ambler points out that in 2020, there were 207 days when wind produced less than 4GW – one sixth of capacity. Back-up generating capacity is required for when wind doesn’t blow. It’s why Gary Smith, GMB Union chief, says natural gas must remain part of the plan. He says MPs appear to think we can create power from “butterflies flapping their wings”.
Allies of Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng insist the Government wants to make up for 20 years of inaction by a ‘Who’s Who’ of Energy Ministers. Big decisions have been shunned for two decades, leading to sticking plaster policy making. But the key here will be whether No.10 can stick the course when bills start going up. Let’s remember, David Cameron went from hugging a husky to demanding Ministers axe the ‘green crap’ from energy tariffs.
The energy price cap has jumped £139 to £1,277 – that’s less than £3.50 a day but more than enough to generate toxic headlines about the cost of living. Currently a slew of eco and transmission charges are paid for by consumers through their bills. And as one Cabinet Minister told me, ultimately households will pick up the tab for Boris’ clean power plan. The final bill would dwarf, say, a controversial rise in fuel duty.
It’s easy to argue this is the right thing to do given our need to cut emissions. But what happens when bills rise before the next General Election to help build Sizewell C or an offshore wind farm?
The cynical would suggest the Government’s desire to move more eco costs onto gas from electricity bills is simply because Ministers realise a whole raft of new charges are about to go on the latter. For instance, the financing structure being put in place for new nuclear plants would see consumers asked to subsidise construction – and any overruns – right from the start.
Will Boris really have the courage to see this plan through when Brits feel the pinch? We shall see.