US-China rhetoric won’t solve our climate woes if Beijing stays hooked on coal
In a move reminiscent of the Obama era, the US and China announced a joint agreement on climate change, taking Cop26 attendees by surprise. This commitment to cooperation comes laden with symbolism in a backdrop of wider, intractable tensions in the US-China relationship. But signs of concrete plans remain mysterious.
The joint declaration made between the US and China – both strategic rivals and the world’s largest emitters – reaffirmed two main goals. The first is the importance of efforts to limit global temperature rises to 1.5. The second is the vague commitment to cooperation on “enhanced climate action” throughout the 2020s.
However, the fact there was an agreement at all is a marked shift from a confrontational tone that has characterised the US-China relationship over the last five years. In the context of Cop26, China’s willingness to play ball is, in itself, a hopeful sign that a substantive pledge on climate can be reached in the future.
Without China, we won’t move the needle on global emissions. So while scepticism about China’s sincerity would not be misplaced, there is movement; it’s an open door to something many, prior to the summit, thought would be kept firmly shut. When President Xi Jinping refused to attend Cop26, many saw it as a failure of climate talks before they even began.
But while the high-level optics are promising, the details offer little substance. The question is still how far China is willing to go in the face of significant obstacles. The agreement steers towards methane, but China refused to sign up to the US-led global pact to cut methane emissions by 2030. While the test sees China agree to “phase down” coal consumption, there’s no real plans to wind down its domestic acceleration of coal-fire power stations.
John Kerry, the US climate lead, chose his words carefully, saying the two sides had agreed “to accelerate and phase down unabated coal as fast as is achievable.” Xie Zhenhua, China’s top climate official avoided answering further questions about a coal phase out.
And there are big gaps: China bringing forward its 2030 peak emissions pledge, an emissions or coal use cap, a global carbon market, or concrete details of green finance and capacity building in developing countries.
It is telling that China’s biggest event this week is not in Glasgow, but 5,000 miles away in Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party has just concluded its Sixth Plenum, a headline political meeting that will lay the groundwork for the 20th Party Congress in 2022, where Xi will almost certainly seal an unprecedented third term.
The CCP issued its first “historical resolution” for 40 years, setting out a new version of history that justifies Xi’s third term. This is a major power grab. Meanwhile, China has been plagued by power shortages this autumn, an unhelpful sidebar to the narrative that Xi’s leadership is “the key to great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. As Beijing shored up power supply ahead of the winter, China’s daily coal output hit a multi year peak this week.
When regime stability is under threat, it has become a tradition to turn to coal. This trajectory will uphold its place at the largest emitter. Until China signals a plan to turn its commitments into actions, rhetoric will do little but falsely buoy up the hopes of the world.