England require maximum muscle to see off Australia as unlucky George Ford misses out
For the first time in Rugby World Cup history it is genuinely feasible that any of this weekend’s eight quarter-finalists could reach the semi-finals.
We are set for four epic showdowns on Saturday and Sunday, each with their own storyline. And it all starts with England against Australia tomorrow.
The big talking point is George Ford, who has been left out the starting XV despite a string of outstanding performances at this World Cup and in the build-up.
It means England will lose a bit of creativity and ability to attack the line, but it is a decision that makes sense.
With Owen Farrell at No10, and Manu Tuilagi and Henry Slade outside him, it means we will see two monsters in Tuilagi and Kerevi go head to head.
It’s desperately unfortunate for Ford and Jones must have toyed with the idea of leaving Farrell out instead. However, his captain gets the nod for his leadership qualities.
It’s great to see Mako Vunipola back in the side too. He was always going to drop straight back in once fit as he is the best loosehead prop in the business.
The other significant change is Courtney Lawes starting ahead of George Kruis in the second row. The latter is a more intelligent rugby player, but Lawes is a massive physical presence and disruptive from the line-out.
The Wallabies rely heavily on the line-out to build their game and Lawes can disrupt that momentum.
If England are to win, they will have to bring a level of physicality that we know they can to breakdowns and set pieces.
Cutting the supply
They will desperately want to get in the ascendency up front and essentially strangle the Australian supply line.
Keeping world-class flankers Michael Hooper and David Pocock quiet will be integral to that, and if they can, the rest of the team will look fairly ordinary.
Australia are a quality side on their day, as they proved with a Rugby Championship win over New Zealand this summer, but it depends if they turn up.
They have selected a strong side with master technician Will Genia at scrum-half and Christian Lealiifano coming back in at No10.
Michael Cheika has also thrown a curveball in naming Jordan Petaia at outside centre. The 19-year-old is the youngest player to start a World Cup knockout match and there must be something special about him to justify that decision.
Whether he can deliver in a World Cup quarter-final in front of 40,000 fans is another matter.
The Wallabies don’t possess the same threat or footballing ability as their sides of old and so I expect England to extend their six-match winning streak over Australia, although some players will have painful memories of the 2015 World Cup defeat at Twickenham.
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The other quarter-finals are similarly exciting prospects and Ireland have named a strong, experienced side to face the All Blacks, including 12 of the 15 players from the side that beat them last year.
I expect Wales to have too much quality for France on Sunday and then there’s the underdog story everyone wants to see. Japan face South Africa once again and I think there could be another upset on the cards.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is a director within the real estate & construction team at PwC and founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn