Trevor Steven: Fixture pile-up means Manchester City MUST beat Arsenal in title showdown
At this stage in a delicately poised Premier League title race you are looking for little signs of where the trophy might be heading, and in the last week Arsenal and Manchester City have provided some.
On Sunday at West Ham, leaders Arsenal put themselves firmly in control with two early goals, only to let that lead go for a second match in a row in an outcome that can be put down to the leaders feeling the heat.
Five days earlier at the Etihad Stadium, City came under severe pressure from Bayern Munich but regained their composure and put the Germans to the sword in the Champions League. It was a show of their pedigree and experience.
A week out from the two teams meeting in Manchester, the champions remain four points behind but have seized the momentum with 10 consecutive victories in all competitions. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, is proving again how good he is at getting the best out of players.
John Stones has been unbelievable in a new role which asks fresh questions of opponents, which is exactly why Guardiola has deployed him there, and Jack Grealish now looks a better player than the one who left Aston Villa.
Squad strength is also coming to the fore. City’s bench is so impressive, not just for their names but their impact. Arsenal’s isn’t on the same level, and William Saliba’s absence from the back four has just disrupted their clockwork-like efficiency.
Depth could yet play a key part in this title race, with City still in the hunt for a treble. They face an FA Cup semi-final this weekend and, barring a sensational second-leg comeback from Bayern on Wednesday, another two-legged Champions League tie.
The upshot is that between now and the last round of Premier League games on 28 May, City are set for 10 fixtures compared to Arsenal’s six. That means two games a week from hereon in for Pep’s men, including a likely trip to Brighton in the midweek before the final day.
Arsenal’s visit to City on Wednesday week has naturally been billed as a title decider and they are in urgent need of a boost before then. You don’t want to be going to the Etihad while scratching around for form.
Fortunately, then, they have Southampton at home this Friday as they look to rediscover winning ways and restore some confidence. On paper, the league’s bottom team ought to be perfect cannon fodder for the Gunners.
After two disappointing results, Mikel Arteta’s task is to batten down the hatches and work on rekindling the team’s spark. I don’t think they’ll be trembling in the dressing room yet and I expect them to pummel the Saints.
While I think City are more likely to win the league from here, the importance of their match with Arsenal shouldn’t be underestimated, and it is they who need to win, not Arteta’s side.
If they do, I think it will be decisive as Arsenal will struggle to recover from that big a body blow compounding recent setbacks at this stage of the season.
I don’t see them beating City on their own turf, but if a revitalised Gunners side get a draw it would keep their destiny in their own hands and could give them the confidence to keep their noses in front during a testing run-in that includes a trip to Newcastle.
If City lose some momentum, however, it could weigh heavily during a packed fixture schedule. If Arteta can engineer a draw, it could be Arsenal’s best point of the campaign.
Trevor Steven is a former England footballer who played at two World Cups and two European Championships. @TrevorSteven63.