Tory vote could halve in double by-election defeat, leaked memo claims
The Conservative vote could halve to just 30 per cent in two possible by-election defeats later this week, a leaked memo has claimed.
Officials at Tory HQ suggest the party’s share of the vote in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections this Thursday could drop by around half, Sky News reported.
It emerged just over a day before polls open in both constituencies, in a key test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s 2024 general election chances.
The note to party chairman Greg Hands from a top official admits the Tories are set to pin the blame on disgraced ex-MPs Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorries.
It states: “We’ve always known the cause of these by-elections – MPs associated with our party’s challenges last year standing down who are personally associated with negative news stories – would hinder our performance, as in Selby and Somerton & Frome.”
CCHQ said the delay in Dorries officially resigning as an MP over the summer had caused “enormous discontent”.
According to internal polling, based on telephone and canvassing data, the party thinks the result in Mid Beds will give them a vote share of just 30 per cent – compared to 60 per cent in 2019 – with Labour on 22 per cent and the Lib Dems on 12 per cent.
It could see them secure a Conservative victory, with the anti-Tory vote effectively split.
Meanwhile in Tamworth, CCHQ claim the Tory vote share is likely around 28 per cent to 33 per cent – versus Pincher’s 66 per cent victory in 2019 – giving Labour the win.
Voters can go to the polls in Tamworth and Mid Beds from 7am on Thursday, 19 October.