Brexit Live: Theresa May survives vote of no confidence
Prime Minister Theresa May faces a challenge to her leadership after the threshold for triggering a vote of no confidence was reached this morning. Welcome to today’s City A.M. Brexit live blog.
This post is being updated. Please refresh for the latest version.
A vote will be held tonight between 6pm and 8pm after Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee, said he has received at least 48 letters of no confidence in May. The results will be known by 9pm tonight.
22:20 “A divided party and no clear route through the Commons for her deal”
City A.M.’s head of politics Owen Bennett on the result of the vote:
It seems whatever happens to Theresa May, she is haunted by her own slogan: nothing has changed.
As Sir Graham Brady read out the result, pausing just long enough for one MP to jest “let us pray”, her allies cheered and leapt to their feet with joy.
But the celebrations were not entirely full throated, as while the margin of her win in the confidence is enough to keep her in office, it is not enough to silence those who want her gone.
With a third of the party against her, it is virtually impossible to see how she would get her Brexit deal through Parliament in its current form.
But then, we knew that already. As May flies off to meet with EU leaders in Brussels, she will leave behind the same problems that prompted her to pull Tuesday’s Brexit vote; namely, a divided party and no clear route through the Commons for her deal.
If the Brexiters do want shot of her, the only avenue left may be to ask their DUP allies to do finish what they started and announce they will no longer prop up the Tories with May as leader.
21:30 Theresa May is speaking outside Downing Street
“A significant number of colleagues did cast votes against me and I have listened to what they said,” she said.
“We now need to get on with the job of delivering Brexit to the British people and building a better future for this country.”
“A Brexit that delivers on the vote that people gave, that brings back control of our money, our borders and our laws, that protects jobs, security and the union,that brings the country back together rather than entrenching division.
“That will start here in Westminster with politicians from all sides coming together and acting in the national interest.
“For my part, I’ve heard what the house of commons said about the Northern Ireland backstop and when I go to the European Council tomorrow I will be seeking legal and political assurances that will assuage the concerns that members of parliament have on that issue…Here is our renewed mission, delivering the Brexit people voted for, bringing the country back together and building a country that truly works for everyone.”
21:25 Pound drops against dollar on confidence vote result
The value of sterling against the dollar has fallen on the news that Theresa May survived the vote of no confidence this evening. The pound dropped 0.44 per cent against the dollar to $1.26, however the value is still up around 1.1 per cent for the day.
21:00 Theresa May has won the confidence vote
Votes in favour: 200
Votes against May: 117
20:50 May to give speech after result is announced
Theresa May is likely to give a speech outside Downing Street after the result is announced in around 10 minutes time, the BBC is reporting.
Mic has gone out in Number 10 for what is likely therefore to be another podium moment for Theresa May after the result
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 12, 2018
20:00 The votes are in and counting has begun
The result is expected within an hour.
18:10 Conservative MPs begin vote on May’s leadership
The ballot opened at 6pm and Tory MP’s have begun to cast their votes following May’s speech to the 1922 committee.
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1072916125044928512
Following the meeting Isle of Wight MP Bob Seely said he “very strongly” suspected the Prime Minister would survive the vote. The result will be announced between 8pm and 9pm this evening.
PM did well enough. Some hostile questions but overwhelming mood supportive. Very strongly suspect she will survive.
— Bob Seely MP (@IoWBobSeely) December 12, 2018
17:30 May says she won’t lead the party into the next election
However, she said she would lead the Tories if there is a snap election in the next 12 months.
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1072905474432008198
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1072908641920004096
17:10 May prepares to address 1922 committee
Theresa May will now speak at a meeting of the influential 1922 committee in a bid to persuade MPs to back her in this evening’s no confidence vote.
16:05 Two suspended MPs have whip restored for voting
Two suspended Tory MPs, Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths, have had the whip restored ahead of tonight’s vote so that they can take part.
Important for my constituents to know that, 13 months after having it withdrawn, I have been given back the Conservative Whip. I remain as confident as I always have been of clearing my name and will continue to work as hard for Dover & Deal as I always have done.
— Charlie Elphicke (@CharlieElphicke) December 12, 2018
Elphicke was previously suspended over alleged sexual offences, while Griffiths was suspended to sending sexually-explicit text messages to two young women.
Elphicke is thought be voting against Theresa May, while Griffiths is supporting the PM. Essentially, they’ll cancel each other out.
15:06 The EU27 will discuss no-deal scenario at last meeting
The European Council president Donald Tusk has written to member states this afternoon to say that the upcoming meeting of the EU27 will explore preparations for a no-deal scenario.
The two-day event on Thursday and Friday this week is the last meeting of the year for the European Council.
Tusk said “given the seriousness of the situation in the UK”, they will await a presentation from Theresa May before making their conclusions.
“As time is running out, we will also discuss the state of preparations for a no-deal scenario,” Tusk added.
Meanwhile the European Parliament has issued a statement after a conference of presidents, calling the backstop a “last resort”.
It said that renegotiations on the backstop are “not possible” at this stage, however it would hope that there would never be a situation in which deployment of the backstop would be necessary.
14:29 Gove predicts May to win the vote ‘handsomely’
Environment secretary and prominent Brexiter MP Michael Gove has said he expects the Prime Minister to win the vote tonight “handsomely”.
He told reporters: “I think the Prime Minister will win tonight and she will win handsomely. I regret that a leadership contest has been triggered, but I respect my colleagues.
“I know that everyone’s made their decision after careful thought.
“The one thing I would ask every Conservative MP to do is to ponder before they cast their vote this evening: If we don’t support the prime minister, then we risk derailing or diluting Brexit.
“If we do support the Prime Minister we can honour the mandate that the British people have given us.”
If Theresa May loses a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening, the starting gun will be fired on who will be the next Prime Minister.
We’ve taken a look at the six most likely candidates to replace her.
13:58 Brexiters and DUP propose changes to Irish backstop
Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster, in collaboration with trade secretary Liam Fox and former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Dominic Raab, have proposed changes to the backstop in the withdrawal agreement today.
“The UK needs a unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop, but we can give the Irish government assurances that we would put in place specific measures to guarantee no return to a hard border,” Raab said in a joint statement.
13:19 Theresa May hints she won’t contest the next election
Theresa May will tell her warring MPs that today’s vote in her leadership is about Brexit, not about who will lead the Conservatives into the next general election.
A Downing Street source has said that the PM will address a meeting of MPs at 5pm, just an hour before the vote of no confidence begins.
12:43 More than 158 Tory MPs have pledged their support
Multiple reports have emerged that more than 158 Conservative MPs have publicly stated they will support the Prime Minister at tonight’s no confidence vote, which takes her over the threshold needed to win.
However this does not necessarily mean that she will secure victory: As today’s vote will be a secret ballot, public declarations of support should be taken with a pinch of scepticism.
Here’s a list of all the MPs we know have come out either in support or against May so far.
Our editor-in-chief’s take:
Hammond says this evening's vote "will flush out the extremists" – predicts May will win with the support of "vast majority" of Tory MPs
— Christian May (@ChristianJMay) December 12, 2018
12:35 Prime Minister’s Questions: Crossrail
Tory Sir David Evennett asked if May is affected by the ongoing turmoil surrounding the Crossrail project, and the rising costs associated with it. He put the blame at the feet of Transport for London and mayor Sadiq Khan.
May responded to suggest that Khan “needs to get his finger out” to fix the issue.
12:24 Prime Minister’s Questions: May defends her Brexit record
Several Labour MPs including Matthew Pennycook, Catherine West and Ellie Reeves, have queried the Prime Minister’s track record on delivering Brexit.
May said the British people voted to leave the European Union, and the 2016 referendum is the meaningful vote that she intends to respect. She believed she had “the right judgement” to accept the result on the referendum, and deliver “a good Brexit for the country”.
12:08 Prime Minister’s Questions: Progress in Europe
When asked by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn what changes she had secured to the deal in her visit to Europe yesterday, Theresa May said:
“I had discussions with a number of people and have made some progress.”
“But of course… there are further discussions to be held.”
She added that a date for a new debate on the deal will be announced in due course, via parliamentary procedure.
Our head of politics’ take:
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1072825511376752641
11:32 Business groups come out in support of May
Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, told the Guardian today:
“The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on.”
“Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order.”
Similarly, Institute of Directors director general Stephen Martin said:
“The last thing businesses needed today was even more uncertainty – and yet politics has managed to deliver on that once again.
“Many business leaders, along with the rest of the country, will be tearing their hair out at the state of Westminster politics at the moment.”
“Politics is politics, and we will have to let this run its course. But whatever the outcome, cool heads must prevail. Ensuring economic stability and certainty in the months ahead should be priority number one for all politicians.”
10:35 At least 100 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May
Here’s a list of all those who have tweeted their support for the Prime Minister this morning. It includes numerous members of the cabinet, as well as those identified as potential contenders for leadership.
Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd, and home secretary and potential leadership challenger Sajid Javid were among the first cabinet members to come out in support of May.
Prominent Brexiter MPs and so-called Pizza Club members Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom have all similarly said they are in support of May staying on as Prime Minister.
09:37 Theresa May gives statement outside Downing Street
Some highlights from her statement:
“Sir Graham Brady has confirmed that he has received 48 letters from Conservative MPs so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the Conservative party. I will contest that vote with everything I’ve got.”
“I stood to be leader because I believe in the Conservative vision for a better future. A thriving economy, with nowhere and nobody left behind. A stronger society, where everyone can make the most of their talents. Always serving the national interest.
“And at this crucial moment in our history, that means securing a Brexit deal that delivers on the result of the EU referendum.”
“I spent yesterday meeting Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte, President Tusk and President Juncker to address the concerns that MPs have with the backstop – and we are making progress.
“I was due to travel to Dublin this afternoon to continue that work – but will now remain here in London to make the case for my leadership with my parliamentary colleagues. A change of leadership in the Conservative party now will put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it.
“A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21st January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.
“The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate a withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March – so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying – or even stopping – Brexit when people want us to get on with it.
“And a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation or the parliamentary arithmetic.”
“The British people want us to get on with it. And they want us to focus on the other vital issues that matter to them too. Building a stronger economy, delivering first-class public services and the homes that families need.”
“Delivering the Brexit people voted for. Building a country that works for everyone. I have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since I became prime minister. And I stand ready to finish the job.”
08:30 How will the vote work?
Party rules dictate a contest if 15 per cent of Conservative MPs write to the chair.
May needs to win the support of 158 Tory MPs to survive, and could not face another leadership challenge for a full year.
It comes after May delayed parliament’s vote on her unpopular Brexit deal earlier this week, promising instead a vote by 21 January as she attempts to renegotiate a deal that EU leaders say is final.
Sterling fell to 1.248 against the dollar on the news, returning to a 20-month low it hit last night.
Letters have been coming in to the 1922 Committee since the summer, but expectations of a no confidence vote last month were blown despite Eurosceptic Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg’s European Research Group (ERG) calling for a leadership challenge when he submitted his own letter in mid-November.