Tory conference: What to expect from Birmingham and why does it matter?
Battling through delayed and cancelled trains from London’s Euston, this weekend saw Tory and Westminster watchers embark on the journey to the Midlands.
Rattling around the maze-like International Convention Centre (ICC), the party faithful are gathering for an event that promises to be a combination of a wake, for the past 14 years in government; a post-mortem, for a shattering election result; and – crucially – the stirrings of a rebirth.
The conference handbook, under the somewhat subdued slogan ‘Review and Rebuild’, opens with a letter from Rishi Sunak – who is not making a main stage speech, or even attending the full event – describing the past year as both “difficult” and “disappointing”.
But while one leader recedes into the distance, could this year’s conference be a moment where a successor to moderniser David Cameron’s famous ‘no notes’ speech emerges?
For the four leadership candidates, while the race is already well underway, the next few days promise to be a vital staging post on the road to victory, or elimination.
Top job jostling
Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat are hammering the fringe events and drinks receptions, in a bid to charm as many members – and secure as many votes – as humanly possible.
Huge banners bearing their faces are strung up in the venue, which boasts a built-in Starbucks and Subway and feels not unlike a provincial shopping centre.
Over the next few days, each candidate will take part in an in-conversation event, followed by a Q&A with the audience, before each making a 20-minute speech on Wednesday.
This main stage moment – with just 12 votes between pack leader Jenrick on 33 and Cleverly and Tugendhat joint third with 21 each – will be the culmination of this year’s ‘beauty parade’ – and potentially make or break the contest.
While we’ll have to wait and see, organisers do seem to have deliberately structured this year’s event to maximise the chances of a repeat of 2012.
Could a (no offence) ‘nobody’ cause enough of an upset to turn the race on its head?
Wooing the young
Another focus this year, in the wake of 4 July’s crushing defeat, is the conversation the party needs to have with itself.
While Labour’s challenge was to speak to the country, reflecting outwards with a message of hope; the Conservative Party is taking a long, hard look in the mirror.
Huge numbers of panels on assessing ‘why we lost’ or ‘what went wrong’ litter the conference programme.
One such factor might be the soaring age of the ‘crossover’ voter. The average age at which someone is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour has risen to a staggering 63.
As former Conservative adviser and now think tank chairman Robert Colville said at a Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) event: “Being a Tory is quite a weird thing now, and being a Tory under 50 is a very weird thing.”
Winning back young – and frankly, middle aged – people, as well as dodging the ‘weird’ label will be an essential building block for the Tories to rebuild a successful electoral coalition.