Deflation, no demand: Global economies struggling to up inflation and stagnation is on the rise May 18, 2015 We are now well into the second phase of post-financial crisis recovery. The first, terrifying phase was the period when central banks had to cut interest rates to zero and then develop and deploy new, unconventional weapons, including QE. The European Central Bank (ECB) had to be more imaginative than others, as it tried [...]
Britain could be about to enter brief deflation May 17, 2015 The UK could enter deflation for the first time since comparable records began when figures are released tomorrow morning. Yet most economists believe inflation’s venture into negative territory will be short-lived, given that oil and global food prices have halted their declines. The consumer price index (CPI) – the basket of goods used to measure [...]
Turnover across UK restaurants reaches £21.6bn May 17, 2015 The turnover of Britain’s restaurant industry has risen by 39 per cent since the recession thanks to a wave of new start-ups and the growth of smaller chains to reach £21.6bn last year. Finance provider LDF said the turnover of the restaurant sector has grown from £15.5bn in 2010, driven by the expansion of so-called [...]
Four charts that sum up the week: Sterling rallies, UK growth forecast cut, London house prices rise and Europe beats Britain May 15, 2015 London house prices ended seven months of decline, the Bank of England said it was feeling less optimistic about the UK economy and the French economy sped ahead of Britain and Germany in the first quarter, this week. Here are four charts that sum up what happened. 1. London house prices are on the up again, [...]
Mark Carney moves the goalposts again as interest rate hike seems way off – Bottom Line May 13, 2015 Unemployment is down, wages are up and inflation is forecast to rise too high in a couple of years. Surely it is time to raise interest rates, isn’t it? Not so, Mark Carney said yesterday. Borrowers may cheer, but it is a touch worrying that the governor seems keen to keep rates down for [...]
A tale of two economies: Why the Bank of England risks a sharp hike in interest rates May 13, 2015 We were offered two conflicting views of the UK economy yesterday, from the monthly Labour Market Statistics and the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report. The Labour Market Statistics presented a picture of a booming economy and accelerating wage inflation. Unemployment has fallen by about 400,000 over the past year and the jobless rate [...]
Bank of England inflation report: UK growth expectations cut May 13, 2015 The Bank of England today slashed forecasts for how much its expects the economy will grow this year to 2.5 per cent, down from 2.9 per cent. Threadneedle Street also said it expects interest rates to remain close to historical lows for the foreseeable future, before rising some time in the second quarter of 2016. [...]
Outlook for UK wage growth still bleak despite rising job prospects May 10, 2015 Job prospects are improving but UK wage growth is likely to remain weak this year as companies continue to find no shortage of employees to recruit at current pay levels, the professional body for HR managers warned today. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), said falling inflation together with low job turnover and [...]
As the Bank’s latest minutes suggest, is it likely that inflation will bounce back soon? April 22, 2015 Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, says Yes Consumer price index inflation has been at zero for two months now. But looking ahead, the pressures are in an upward direction. The oil price has recently risen above $60 per barrel and petrol prices are firming up. The labour market continues to tighten, putting upward [...]
Why zero inflation means there are no more free lunches for politicians April 21, 2015 The temptation to believe in the concept of a free lunch has proved irresistible to numerous governments through the ages. Henry VIII, for example, has seized the popular imagination once again through Damian Lewis’s brilliant portrayal of him in Wolf Hall. Bluff King Hal is the nickname often associated with the King. But to his [...]