Will Tony Blair help or hinder the campaign for a second referendum?
Of the four living former Prime Ministers, three are united in vocal and (to a varying degree) active opposition to current government policy.
John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have taken very different approaches to life after Downing Street but what unites them now is support for a second referendum. Major has called for a new vote based on “fact not fantasy” while Brown has said he is “convinced” one will happen as MPs exhaust all other options.
But as far as we know, only Blair has been active behind the scenes – trying to make the stars align for a so-called People's Vote. It's one thing for a former Prime Minister to make speeches, pen articles and express their view – but it's quite another to actively undermine your own country during crunch negotiations – by advising and supporting the other side.
Blair admitted last week that he's had conversations at the highest levels of the EU aimed at finding a way of averting Brexit. He may consider this to be nothing more than his patriotic duty but you don't have to be a red-blooded Brexiteer to have sympathy for Theresa May, who – while trying to do her best to deliver Brexit – has accused Blair of undermining the UK's position and, in so doing, insulting the office he once held.
We'll never know the details of the meetings and conversations that Blair has had, but it's safe to assume they went beyond a chat about the weather and some shared thoughts on no-deal contingency plans. It is not far-fetched to assume that Blair would have urged EU officials not to offer May any help in getting the deal past MPs in Westminster by revisiting the terms of the Irish border backstop – which is May's current endeavour.
The formal campaign for a second referendum, run in part by Blair's former director of communications, pins its hopes on May's deal failing and a People's Vote emerging by default as the logical path to follow.
As this newspaper has argued, such a turn of events would be extremely high-risk and MPs should not assume there is comfort to be found in returning the question to the people.
Those that do advocate such a move should reflect on whether Blair's secret meetings and private efforts will help their cause, or hinder it.