The Notebook: What I learned at Westminster’s Christmas parties
Where the City’s movers and shakers have their say: Today it’s Michael Martins, founding partner at Overton Advisory, with the pen…
We have entered the final week before Westminster breaks up for Christmas and I would like to continue a tradition that I started at the US embassy in London: a Christmas cable
The weeks of holiday receptions before Christmas are the perfect time to gather political intelligence, so here are four things I learned over the season:
First, Labour continues to struggle to articulate its vision within the Westminster bubble. Defensiveness and inertia pervade special advisors and junior ministers, who fear acting decisively in case they clash with the Prime Minister’s sometimes unclear views. Meanwhile, ever-increasing media scrutiny, Reform’s rise in the polls and a stabilised Conservative Party with a new, punchy leader make me think a reshuffle in the first half of 2025 is more likely than not.
Second, Labour remains somehow unprepared for Trump’s return. Political circles continue to debate the government’s stance, split between supporting Trump publicly and criticising him privately or a full pivoting to the EU. PM Starmer’s actions, including removing his two foreign affairs special advisors, prioritising EU regulatory alignment over a US trade deal and public engagement with China’s President the week after Trump’s re-election, suggest he is prioritising the EU.
Third, the Conservatives, still recovering from their July electoral loss, have not yet realised that being in opposition sucks, probably because Labour’s first five months have been so rocky. Many believe Labour won’t be able to deliver on public service reform and raise taxes without alienating voters, creating openings for the Conservatives. However, Reform’s rise remains their key concern because it would split the right-wing vote. I think an informal pact between the two will materialise, especially if pollsters continue to predict Reform winning 100+ seats at the next election.
Finally, journalists seem increasingly frustrated with Labour’s reluctance to deviate from election-era holding lines. While distinct from the widespread fatigue during PM Sunak’s tenure, where most journalists were indifferent to good ideas like cutting business taxes, Labour’s limited storytelling capability is making journalists’ lives harder, hurting goodwill for the no-longer-new government.
Select Committee inquiry season is upon us
The Select Committees of Parliament are all in place and many have finally issued a call to arms for those with ideas for government scrutiny and new policies. Those with strong views about the UK’s business and investment environment would do well to let Business and Trade Chair Liam Byrne MP know what you would do differently. Oddly, the Business Committee is also scrutinising the work of the Treasury, traditionally the purview of the Treasury Select Committee – maybe some inter-Committee drama coming our way?
Is Tim Cook the only business backer of Keir?
Last week PM Starmer hosted Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, for a photo op underlining how Labour was still the party of business. I found it telling that Starmer was not able to find a British company of similar stature and that when he posted a photo of himself and Cook on Linkedin, the volume of criticism and animosity in the comments was to a scale I would normally only expect on Twitter during an election campaign. A far cry from the glory days of the smoked salmon charm offensive.
The MoD needs to change
I have several clients in the defence sector in the Baltics and Nordics that have grown substantially through equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Many have capitalised on the UAF’s pivot to much cheaper ways of fighting, where the smaller Ukrainian forces needed to prioritise scale and affordability over glitz and glamour. Their biggest complaint when entering the UK market? The MoD seems captured by the big defence “primes,” which are charging a lot, locking the government into decades’ long contracts, and delivering very fancy kit suited to a bygone way of combat.
Founders should read Emotional Inheritance
I often wonder about my therapist’s other patients and what they bring to their sessions each week. My therapist, professional that they are, never reveals anything, much to both my chagrin and admiration. They did however recently recommend Emotional Inheritance by Galit Atlas.
Atlas delves deep into the world of family history and, using client case studies, outlines how ancestral events and family personalities affect our daily lives, relationships, and behaviour. As any business owner will know, the strain of running and growing a business, where every day is the Super Bowl, is likely part of the reason a recent Founder Reports study found that nearly 90 per cent of founders and business owners struggle with mental health. So, for any founders reading this, I’d recommend this book wholeheartedly as a form of business support and wise counsel.