Unemployment to remain unchanged at four per cent as jobs market cooling continues August 14, 2023 Experts are expecting the slow cooling of the jobs market to continue when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases new data on Tuesday morning. The unemployment rate in the three months to the end of June is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%, according to a consensus supplied by Pantheon Macroeconomics. But within this [...]
After the economy grew again, will Bank of England’s rate hikes tip the UK into recession? August 11, 2023 The UK economy grew faster than expected in June, expanded 0.5 per cent, helping to bring growth in the second quarter to 0.2 per cent – but analysts are divided about what the figures say for the coming months. Growth in June was given a boost by a strong performance from the production sector, which [...]
The Notebook: Kokou Agbo-Bloua on fashionomics, inflation musings and our broken food system July 25, 2023 Where interesting people say interesting things. Today it’s Kokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of economics, cross-asset & quant research and UK head of research at Societe Generale Fashionomics: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Since the dawn of time, clothing has been an important part of our human experience. We lost our fur at least [...]
UK recession risk just got a whole lot lower after inflation undershoot July 25, 2023 From the Bank of England to recession warnings, Jack Barnett gets under the skin of Britain’s economy in his weekly column Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey would not have been the only person in the City last week breathing a sigh of relief after the better than expected inflation numbers. It was the first [...]
UK vacancies run at 1m in every month for last two years July 24, 2023 UK businesses are still hungry to take on workers despite the economy slowing under the weight of high inflation and interest rates, a new survey out today shows. Vacancies are up for the fifth month in a row and have now been at least 1m in every month since June 2021, according to research by [...]
Mortgage costs slip for first time since May as Bank of England rate bets cool on inflation drop July 20, 2023 Mortgage rates have dropped for the first time in two months, sparked by banks passing on a reduction in interest rate bets after yesterday’s better than feared inflation figures. The average rate on two-year mortgages fell to 6.79 per cent yesterday from 6.81 per cent, according to financial data provider Moneyfacts. It is the first [...]
Bank of England must keep raising rates to finally kill off inflation, City experts say July 20, 2023 The Bank of England should not yet let up on raising interest rates to ensure inflation has finally been defeated. That’s the verdict of City economists despite the Office for National Statistics today revealing the cost of living fell faster than expected to 7.9 per cent in June, down from 8.7 per cent in May. [...]
Why lower inflation should cause the Bank of England to tread carefully July 19, 2023 And breathe. The City and Bank of England have waited a long, long time for the Office for National Statistics to provide some good inflation news. Headline consumer price index inflation down to 7.9 per cent. Core inflation below seven per cent. Services inflation lower at 7.2 per cent. It is the first time that [...]
Bank of England dishes out £25m in bonuses despite Andrew Bailey demanding wage restraint July 19, 2023 The Bank of England has dished out tens of millions of pounds in bonuses despite Governor Andrew Bailey and other senior officials demanding workers accept real terms pay cuts. Threadneedle Street rewarded staff with a total of £25m in one-off handouts over the last year, up from £23m in the previous year, according to a [...]
Pay growth stays at three decade high but inflation still stripping away wages July 19, 2023 Pay growth is running at its fastest pace in over three decades and has remained unchanged for the second quarter in a row, in a sign the Bank of England may have to back a bigger interest rate hike again next month. New figures out today from XpertHR reveal wages leapt six per cent in [...]