Romney will be hoping victory comes swiftly
IT COST Mitt Romney approximately $16m to win Florida’s 50 delegates. The one thing he couldn’t afford in Florida was defeat. But Romney didn’t just come back from a double-digit poll deficit – he did something much more impressive. Newt Gingrich remarked that a strong second would save his “totally unique” campaign. With a landslide victory, Romney even robbed Gingrich of that.
Florida was not for the faint-hearted. In all, 92 per cent of campaign ads in Florida were negative. Gingrich was regularly crying foul play, accusing Romney of “carpet bombing” him with attack ads. There was some truth to this and Romney certainly outspent him. But Gingrich’s attacks were just as, if not more, personal.
Ultimately Gingrich undermined his own brand. As a candidate who has built his reputation as a combative conservative, he looked weak when repeatedly asking Romney to play fair. He reverted to the same tired attacks on private equity and Wall Street. His debate performances were not just flat, they were dismal. 87 per cent of Republicans stated that the debates impacted their decision. Not surprisingly, Romney was the beneficiary.
In defeat, Gingrich was defiant as ever. He’ll certainly launch an aggressive counterattack, likely through his super pollical action committee (PAC). But his other challenge will be to convince his financial backers to send more cheques, even if they have to wait until super Tuesday on 6 March for more favourable returns. February’s schedule favours Romney. The question has always been whether it would be Romney’s lifeline or the start of a victory lap. With almost $20m in the bank, it’s looking like the latter.
Of the six contests – Missouri’s primary is merely symbolic – in February (Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona), Romney won all but one in 2008, missing out to John McCain in the senator’s home state of Arizona. Romney has picked up the senator’s endorsement, but his greatest asset may well be his tough stance on illegal immigration, an issue consistently ranked as one of the most important to voters in the state. A sweep in February is entirely possible.
Ron Paul participated in Florida’s debates, but his strategy has always been to look ahead to February’s caucuses. He will continue to fight on and may well be the main benefactor of some tactical voting in the Virginia primary on 6 March. Only he and Romney got enough signatures to contest the ballot in the Old Dominion. Rick Santorum just opened a new campaign headquarters in Nevada and appears to have no plans to drop out. But it’s hard to see where his campaign goes from here.
Gingrich has pledged to take his campaign to the convention, adding that the protracted Obama-Clinton battle in 2008 proved that “there’s no reason that a long campaign has to be a bad thing.” This is only true if your opponent’s campaign machine fails to take advantage. Ask Jimmy Carter if Ted Kennedy helped his re-election bid in 1980. If Romney pulls significantly ahead and Gingrich still refuses to drop out, the Republican Party will have a major problem on its hands. For Gingrich will no longer be running to win the presidency, but to ensure Romney loses it. And that’s Barack Obama’s job.
Ewan Watt is a Washington, DC-based consultant. You can follow him on @ewancwatt