To recreate a 1997 victory, Labour needs to find a clear path to do more – with less
One of the most recent polls has put Labour 26 points ahead of the Conservatives. Even less favourable polling would still give Labour a big 1997-style landslide. In other words: great news for Labour, bad news for the Tories, with the Prime Minister already clinging to her job just five weeks in. The question for Labour, however, is the size of their victory and the mandate it has to govern.
Labour currently faces an opportunity to define another generation of politics: not just to win, but to win big. Not just to have the chance to govern, but to have a mandate for radical change. The opportunity is there: one poll by Yonder found 75 per cent of people thought the country lacked a plan for the future and 69 per cent thought Britain was in a period of decline. The scale of the challenges the country faces – the interconnection of fiscal constraint and failing public services- requires systemic change. This gives Labour the opportunity to bring innovative ideas to the policy questions of our time. By going beyond just opposing the government and entering into the space with a plan for Britain’s future, Labour could unify the country. Such an approach will bring both electoral rewards and a mandate for change.
Not seizing this opportunity comes with real dangers. Current polling is, clearly, positive for Labour. The recent party conference went well. Keir Starmer is growing in stature and people are beginning to see his shadow cabinet as an organised operation. This needs to be on top of this current government flailing – not because of it. Truss has the lowest approval ratings of all time. The new chancellor has ditched much of the controversial and damaging mini budget. You could easily look at all of this and think Labour is doing all it should be. But there is a danger in that.
It is far from a given that Labour will face down a Truss-led Conservative party at the next election. Nor are the current government’s policies certain to be the ones they stick with heading to the polls. Complacency on this could spell danger for Starmer’s Labour.
You could see it: a different, better or improved prime minister, better policies from the government, stabilising economic projections, shortening poll leads for Labour. All of these scenarios could put Labour into the territory of winning the next election without a clear majority.
So, what should Labour be doing differently? Right now it means going much further beyond just opposing and criticising the government. The current Labour party have become slick in their attacks on Liz Truss and the current inhabitants of Downing Street.
Labour has areas of radical new thinking, like climate policy, but it must broaden and deepen these, differentiating themselves from the Tories in substance and vision. Not doing so risks gifting the Tories the type of weapon Jeremy Hunt deployed yesterday, when he said: “Behind the rhetoric, I don’t think (Rachel Reeves) disagreed with a single one of the decisions that I announced to Parliament.”
Starmer has started to set out a policy plan, but now is the moment he needs to hammer it out. The current state of British politics is unpredictable in the extreme. No one can say when the next election will be and Labour needs to be ready for a timeline faster than they – or many of us – might expect.
The next Labour Government won’t inherit a capability for greater public spending. Nor will it inherit public services that are performing well. This challenge requires deep innovation and focus. The next government’s policy agenda must be built upon the radical potential technology has to change, improve and innovate. We need a plan for how the country gets to net zero while creating new green jobs that stimulate the economy. A plan that renews the NHS to prevent disease, not just treat it. A plan for education that equips our young people for the jobs of the next decades, not the last. Labour must show, in short, it can be progressive and radical while, to borrow a David Cameron phrase, doing more with less.