Profit from Balding’s Bermuda instead of Sussex Stakes duel
YOU DON’T need a bet in today’s Group One Sussex Stakes (3.35pm) to enjoy what should be a thrilling battle between this season’s top three-year-old, Paddington, and classy four-year-old filly, Inspiral.
Earlier in the week, Inspiral made a bit of appeal as an each-way bet-to-nothing at 9/2, but that quickly disappeared and she’s a best-price 7/2 in what now looks like a tricky race to profit from.
All things considered, 7/2 still looks a big price and I think there will be little to separate them at the finish, particularly with Paddington’s high head carriage vulnerable to a late lunge, but he is hard to oppose.
He’s shown the class to put clear daylight between himself and two Group One fields over a mile, as well as the stamina and attitude to outbattle top-class filly Emily Upjohn over two furlongs extra in the Eclipse.
Interestingly, both Paddington and Inspiral are stepping out on the quirky Sussex Downs track for the first time, so that could throw up a surprise result, but on everything we’ve seen so far this season, the three-year-old is the one to beat.
If Inspiral can find her best form, which would mean taking an expected step forward from her seasonal reappearance when second in the Group One Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, then she can get close.
A World Pool Quinella will probably spit out a winning dividend slightly worse than even-money, which isn’t to be sniffed at given how far ahead the pair are on ratings.
For those looking for an even more exotic bet consider throwing the French-trained gelding Facteur Cheval into a World Pool Swinger or Trifecta.
He was only beaten a head in the Group One Prix d’Ispahan last time and will relish soft conditions.
The following Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (4:10pm) looks a more interesting betting race.
Tropical Island shaped like a nice filly on debut at Ripon, passing horses on testing ground to get her career off to a winning start, and she could be smart.
But, with rock-solid Royal Ascot form under her belt, FLORA OF BERMUDA looks well-placed by trainer Andrew Balding to shed her maiden tag.
Having cost £340,000 at the Breeze-Up sales in the spring, she showed glimpses of class in her first two starts without scoring and was then an eye-catching sixth in the Group Two Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The first five home that day all raced on the stand’s side, including Relief Rally who has since gone on to win the Super Sprint at Newbury in fine style, while she led them home on the far side.
Four of the 20 horses finishing behind her have come out and won since, including Cotai Vision, who trailed the whole field home in 26th.
She looks like a talented filly capable of winning in Group company this season, so this should be a golden opportunity to get off the mark before heading onto bigger things.
Harvanna looks a talented filly too and trainer Karl Burke has had his juveniles firing on all cylinders so far this season, but she’s not expected to enjoy conditions if the rain comes.
Of the rest, Indispensable, like Flora Of Bermuda at Ascot, can take a step forward from her creditable third when racing away from the pace in the Listed Marwell Stakes last time out.
POINTERS
Flora Of Bermuda 4:10pm Goodwood