Tuesday 06 July 2021 9:03 am

‘Professor Lockdown’ says lifting restrictions is justifiable but warns of potential rollback

People packed out the UK’s beaches over the summer – but it wasn’t enough to offset the huge amount of damage done to the tourism sector by Covid-19.

Imperial College professor Neil Ferguson has said the planned banishing of most Covid-19 restrictions in England from the 19 July is justifiable but carries risk.

Ferguson is behind much of the scientific modelling that has called for lockdowns in the past, but in an interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the professor stressed the effectiveness of vaccines.

“At the peak of the second wave 50,000 cases would translate into something like 500 deaths, but that’s going to be much, much lower this time, more like 50 or so,” the man known as ‘Professor Lockdown’ said.

He went onto say, however, that the risk reopening carries is that case numbers a day could reach 150,000, thereby potentially causing pressure to the health system.

Speaking about the Prime Minister’s announcement yesterday that most coronavirus restrictions will go on the 19 July, Ferguson said it was a “slight gamble”.

However, he said that it was “justifiable” and “reasonably optimistic” but that policy will have to remain “flexible”.

“If we end up in something close to the worst case scenario we [Imperial] and other groups are looking at, which I think is unlikely but can’t be ruled out, then yes there may need to be some sort of course correction later,” he said.

Asked about suggestions that Imperial modelling found there was a kind of “sweet-spot” to end restrictions, Ferguson said that the modelling suggested there was a real benefit to the four-week delay from the 21 June.

“I should say, that of everybody that has died in the UK over this pandemic, 99 per cent of them have been over the age of 40,” Ferguson said.

“By the time we finally relax, nearly everyone in that age range will have had two doses which gives a high level of protection.”