US-Russia relations: Clinton to aggressively push “containment” in post-Cold War world while Trump could reset policy August 24, 2016 A Donald Trump presidency "would open the possibility of a significant improvement in US-Russia relations, albeit with some major caveats", according to BMI Research. Trump has espoused "an unusually Russia-friendly foreign policy, to the extent that his domestic opponents have labelled him as President Vladimir Putin's favoured candidate," BMI said in a new report. In July, [...]
The world according to Trump: American nationalism now drives US foreign policy November 14, 2016 “Every good citizen makes his country’s honour his own.” – Andrew Jackson, seventh US President Donald Trump’s overall foreign policy views are not the mystery the highly-discredited commentariat presently make them out to be. He largely hews to what Walter Russell Mead calls the Jacksonian nationalist strain of American foreign policy, long a minority (if [...]
We need less vision and more basic competence from our political and business leaders August 22, 2016 The things that people don’t know. Brexit, for example. “Brexit means Brexit”, I get it, but a bit more detail would be great. When will we leave the EU, for example? The date keeps shifting every time I check. Do we have a workable trade deal in mind? Boris Johnson apparently saw a “bright future” [...]
It’ll be Clinton who destroys the transatlantic alliance – not Trump August 1, 2016 I will never vote for Donald Trump. In line with the classic modern American demagogic tradition – from Huey Long to George Wallace – the present Republican nominee often plays fast and loose with the truth. He either outright lies, as when he said large crowds of Muslims were cheering in New Jersey when 9/11 [...]
These three perilous trends spell disaster for Saudi Arabia May 31, 2016 “How the mighty have fallen!”– 2 Samuel 1:27 What a difference a year makes in terms of political risk in the energy markets. Just 12 short months ago, all talk was of a resurgent Russia and corresponding security of supply issues in Eastern Europe, as the Kremlin seemed the world’s greatest destabilising force. Traditionally stable [...]
An eye for an eye, a hack for a hack: The global cyber arms race is heating up August 30, 2016 Many will be familiar with the biblical adage “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth”. Underpinning the Book of Exodus, this principle of even-handed justice formed the kernel of Old Testament law. Yet contemporary followers of the book allowed it to transmute into a justification for personal vengeance. It wasn’t until Jesus [...]
EU referendum: Remain or Leave – a matter of war and peace? May 11, 2016 Invoking Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, the Great War, and the Battle of Britain, as arguments for UK engagement with Europe and the world was provocative and historically questionable, but to use these conflicts to support UK membership of the EU as essential is just daft. This is dishonest Remain-style parody of “Leave”. No one is advocating [...]
The problem with Ukraine and Iraq isn’t Putin and Islamic State: It’s that both countries are basket cases May 3, 2016 “The gods help them that help themselves.” – Aesop When it comes to the seemingly intractable crises in both Ukraine and Iraq, a comforting, if wholly untrue, narrative has taken hold. The chaos that has laid low these two plucky, overmatched, but deserving states is entirely the fault of the world’s two most obvious Bond [...]
Sberbank keeps head above water despite Russia’s woes May 28, 2015 RUSSIA’S largest lender Sberbank kept in the black in the first quarter, managing to report a profit despite the country’s economic troubles. The economy is threatened with a deep and prolonged recession, thanks to low oil prices and Western sanctions imposed over the state’s war with Ukraine. But Sberbank still managed to report a profit [...]
Putin is playing bad cards well in Syria and Ukraine – but his days are numbered February 22, 2016 Given the hustle and bustle of modern life, a primary problem for political risk analysts is that they have far too much information rather than too little. I could literally spend the whole day reading other people’s articles, and never make a dent in a day’s worth of foreign policy analysis around the world. Given [...]