Opinion-in-brief: The calm after the storm is only an illusion for Boris
On Monday, Boris Johnson won a no confidence vote – but lost the support of two in five of his MPs. While his supporters painted it as a conclusive victory, arguing that it’s now time to move on, the idea that “a win by one vote is enough” is very far from reality.
There are two important by-elections at the end of the month, in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. If the Conservatives lose, this could be the final blow for Johnson. But who would replace him? The party is divided, and only a figure able to unite could bring some stability.
But such a figure – someone able to build a bridge between the subgroups in the party – is likely to lack Johnson’s charisma, and his MPs will be looking for another election-winning leader.
Rather than a win, the current situation is a loss for the party. Johnson is aware of his fragility, and this means the party will effectively be in a deadlock for a while – unable to implement anything even vaguely valuable for the country.