Opec raises its 2014 oil demand outlook as economy recovers
THE ORGANISATION of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) yesterday raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2014 for the second month in a row.
Opec, which accounts for 40 per cent of the world’s oil supply and represents 12 countries, has revised its forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.14m barrels of oil per day (bopd).
Total world demand for oil is expected to hit 91.1m barrels of oil per day this year, up from 90m bopd in 2013.
“In light of the prevailing uncertainties, a key determinant for this increase in world oil demand will be the pace of growth in the emerging economies,” said Opec in its monthly benchmark report.
Its view contrasts with that of the US government’s Energy Information Administration, which cut its forecast on Tuesday.
Opec – whose members comprise Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela – expects to see improved demand from the US and stabilisation of contraction in demand in Europe.
But it also warned of a possible slowdown in emerging markets.
“This rising risk of a slowdown in growth in the emerging economies has been mirrored in the foreign exchange markets in recent months,” Opec said. “Recent developments in Ukraine have added to this year’s growth risk.”
Opec raised its own output to 30.12m bopd in February, as a ramp-up in Iraqi exports outweighed disruption to Libyan shipments and lower Saudi Arabian production. Opec forecasts non-Opec supply – from countries including the US and Brazil – to rise by 1.3m bopd to 55.5m bopd in 2014.
The International Energy Agency is due to produce its own outlook on the oil market tomorrow.