ONS defends its GDP estimates against sceptical economists
EARLY estimates of economic growth are very accurate, and there is no reason to delay publication of official data, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) declared yesterday, defending its record on GDP figures.
The agency’s GDP figures for the first quarter of this year were widely questioned by economists and statisticians when they were first published in April, showing the country had gone back into recession.
However, the ONS’ second estimate, published last week, showed the fall in GDP was even greater than first thought, and yesterday explained that its initial estimates are usually very accurate.
“Recent average revision is negligible between first and third estimates of GDP,” it said.
“Over the last five years the average GDP revision between the preliminary and third month estimates of GDP is minus 0.02 percentage points. The average absolute revision, without regard to whether the revision is positive or negative, has been 0.13 percentage points.”
However Timetric statistician Simon Briscoe said this analysis misses the point.
“It is not the small revisions between the first and third estimates that are the issue – it is that even the third estimate is not very good,” he told City A.M. “It is only with the full reconciliation of data at the end of the year that the errors are discovered – for example, the major revisions last Autumn showed the boom was bigger and the bust deeper than previously thought.”