Ollie Phillips: I still think they’re poor, but belligerent Wales can beat fragile England – even without a Principality Stadium crowd
Don’t underestimate the magnitude of Wales v England in the Six Nations in Cardiff on Saturday.
With France’s position uncertain due to a Covid-19 outbreak, this is a big match in the context of the title and, for Wales, possibly a Grand Slam.
And anyway, this is Wales v England: a great clash full of rivalry, respect and so much meaning, regardless of form.
Wales may have two wins from two but I haven’t changed my view of them too much. I still think they’re a poor side.
But I’ll give them their due. They are dogged, belligerent and their tackle count is ridiculous; they’re No1 tacklers by a mile and have four players in the top five.
Then they have the brilliance of Louis Rees-Zammit who can produce magic out of nowhere.
Lady Luck has been on their side though, with both of their opponents having a man sent off.
Ireland were the better side even with 14 men and Scotland were certainly better until their red card.
Bizarrely, Wales now have a good chance of winning the Six Nations. That’s how fine the margins can be.
I have to tip my hat to them. They were awful in the Autumn Nations Cup and Wayne Pivac could easily have been sacked.
He will be thanking his lucky stars for those two red cards which have transformed the fortunes of his team.
Fragile England look overcoached
Wales now face a fragile England side who do not seem to know how they’re supposed to play.
Comments this week from England’s coaches about needing to match the Welsh “intensity” sound naive. Guys, that’s not the problem.
Intensity is the minimum requirement in international rugby; without that, you might as well not turn up. Where England need to focus is strategically and tactically.
Those remarks demonstrate a lack of clarity from management.
Everyone seems to have forgotten how poor England were before the 2019 World Cup but those problems are rearing their ugly head again.
There is so much talent in the side but something is not clicking. I think the players look overcoached, like they’re worried about making decisions.
England have lost seven of their last 10 games in Wales but there is one factor in their favour.
A full house at the Principality Stadium is worth six points to the home team. Without that sea of red and yellow at Wales v England it’s not the same.
If the visitors click, they are phenomenal, but at the moment this is a battle between two poor teams struggling to find form.
I expect another tight game, with Owen Farrell and Dan Biggar kicking the leather off the ball and both back threes in for a long day.
There’s nothing wrong with kicking per se – New Zealand are the best side in the world and they do it more than anyone, but it’s strategic and in the right areas.
Wales v England will be another aerial tussle and whoever wins that duel will come out on top.
Grudgingly, I predict Wales to win by five points. The hosts are so resolute defensively; if England are to overcome that, they’ll have to show a creativity that we’ve not seen yet.
If they do, it’s a different story. But Wales have the wind behind them and definitely have enough to get over the line.
Impressive Ireland to bounce back
It’s an enormous shame that Sunday’s clash between France and Scotland has been postponed following further Covid-19 cases in the French camp.
France are the in-form team and playing great rugby, so this is disappointing not just for them but for the neutral too.
Of course we can’t afford to take any risks, but it seems Covid has spoiled the party again.
Elsewhere on Saturday, Ireland will be looking to recover some confidence against Italy in Rome.
I’ve been really impressed with them, despite their two defeats. Andy Farrell is doing a brilliant job as head coach and Paul O’Connell is a great addition to the set-up.
They now need to give Billy Burns the confidence to be their No10 because Johnny Sexton is a yard or two off the pace.
Ireland will want to win big in Italy and I’m sure they will.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development & behavioural change. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn.