No Conservative should stand for Britain in decline
With persistent inflation, Conservatives exhausted and a Labour government with no ideas, the ghosts of the 1970s have returned to haunt Britain. Now, just as then, a comprehensive reboot of the right is required, says Sir Simon Clarke
We live in a time of ghosts. The spirits of the 1970s are stirring across the UK, with the Chancellor and the City alike haunted by the grim phantoms of stagflation and concerns over sterling and gilts. Fifty years ago, an exhausted Conservative government led by Ted Heath had just been ousted, replaced – without enthusiasm – by a Wilson-Callaghan Labour government which, it quickly became apparent, had no answers to the UK’s problems. The parallels with 2025 are obvious.
We face three fundamental challenges: economic sclerosis, unsustainable demographics and a misfiring state that is simultaneously overmighty and inefficient. None of these seem likely to be remedied by Keir Starmer – a man who it is cruelly said campaigns in prose and governs in ChatGPT.
In 1975, of course, the Conservative opposition turned to one Margaret Thatcher. Looking at Britain today, it is hard not to feel the same urgency that prompted her impassioned outburst: “I can’t bear Britain in decline. I just can’t”. From the deeply damaging autumn Budget to champagne-swilling prisoners toasting early release to the reversal of the education reforms that made English schools the best in the West, there are plenty of reasons for the January blues.
Keir Starmer campaigns in prose and governs in ChatGPT
All Conservatives are hoping Kemi Badenoch can rise to the moment in the way Mrs Thatcher did so brilliantly. But she faces a formidable task. She is set to launch a full review of the party’s policies this spring, recognising that, just as Mrs Thatcher commissioned what became known as the “Stepping Stones” papers in opposition, so nothing less than a comprehensive reboot of Conservative thinking is required.
This process must take a long, hard look at how Britain works, or, too often, doesn’t work. We need a compelling Conservative prescription to break out of the high tax, low growth trap we’ve been stuck in since 2008. We need plans to secure energy abundance, ensure our brightest companies see a future here and to bolster our flagging stock market.
The questions Conservatives must answer
The Conservatives need answers, in particular, on how to address the collapse in young people’s prospects. Soaring housing costs, at their highest relative to incomes since the 1870s, represent both an outrageous unfairness and a crippling barrier to growth. They are also directly impacting people’s ability to start a family, or to have as many children as they want. For the party of opportunity, this is devastating – if people can’t see a route to build capital, we shouldn’t be surprised when they turn to socialism.
The Conservatives also have to be searingly honest that they presided over a continuation of New Labour’s model of ultra-high, predominantly low-skilled immigration, which has suppressed productivity and damaged social cohesion. Kemi rightly started to take ownership of this in a major speech before Christmas, pledging not only to change our visa rules to focus on high skilled, high earning migration, but also to ensure that our country is clearly understood to be “our home, not a hotel”.
We also need a plan to rewire our system of government. Too much power has drained away from ministers to the administrative state. A consultation-based culture in Whitehall means the civil service is cripplingly risk averse, while ministers can’t make decisions quickly without risking judicial review.
There is therefore a huge task ahead of the Conservative Party, not only to develop the right policies, but to do the hard thinking and preparation to ensure they can implement them if they win the battle of ideas and then an election. Otherwise they will just end up repeating the same mistakes – and fuelling disillusionment among the public.
Sir Simon Clarke is the new director of Onward, the centre-right thinktank. He previously served as chief secretary to the treasury and secretary of state for levelling up.