Modelling shows even minimal ongoing Covid restrictions will devastate events industry
If even the most minimal Covid restrictions remain in place beyond 19 July, the events industry will be hit by huge losses, according to an impact assessment produced by the government’s Events Research Programme.
Under the strictest scenario presented, in government projections that scrapped social distancing at events, but required guests to wear face masks, produce a negative Covid result before attending and saw a ban on food and drink being served, the events industry as a whole would average just 69 per cent of its 2019 turnover, Politico first revealed.
The programme predicted an even worse scenario for indoor seated venues like theatres and cinemas, which would be projected to achieve just 59 per cent of their 2019 turnover, costing them some £4.88bn over the next year.
The government is yet to publish the findings of its events programme, which uses various pilots to test how future measures for large-scale events for work for the industry.
Modelling produced by the government and seen by Politico suggests the pilot events did not prompt a big surge in coronavirus cases; it was the hit to turnover that was the issue.
Under less strict rules that saw masks on for two hours, Covid certification required, and a ban on alcohol being served but not a ban on food and drink on the whole, the industry would achieve just 78 per cent of its 2019 turnover.
Even under scenarios where only a mask was required to attend, the programme found events businesses would only reach 82 per cent of 2019 turnover.
The Events Research Programme surveyed 3,810 adults to find out why limited measures like face masks had such a big impact on the events sector.
The survey found even small interventions significantly decreased demand, with the exception of Covid testing, which actually boosts demand by 15 per cent.
But face masks meant people were 28 per cent less likely to attend, while a ban on food or drink meant people were 43 per cent less likely to attend.
In response, the government told Politico: “We know how devastating restrictions have been for the live events industry which is why we have put so much extra dedicated support in — £2 billion for the arts and £600 million for sports bodies.
“We desperately want to see full theatres, music venues and stadiums and are working every day to achieve this.”
They added that under scenarios where all restrictions were lifted, turnover was projected to be closer to 2019 levels.