Millions of jobs at risk of automation over the coming decades, Bank of England’s Andy Haldane tells trade union
The Bank of England's chief economist Andy Haldane believes that millions of jobs will come under threat from automation over the coming decades, fuelling unemployment and inequality.
While he believes that up until now "technology has enriched labour, not immiserated it", he believes the next wave of technological advancement could be different.
“By itself, a widening distribution of incomes need not imply any change in labour’s share of national income: in the past, technology’s impact on the labour share appears to have been broadly neutral. But this time could be different.”
As machines improve, he states: “the greater the likelihood that the space remaining for uniquely-human skills could shrink further”.
He told his audience at the Trade Union Congress:
If these visions were to be realised, however futuristic this sounds, the labour market patterns of the past three centuries would shift to warp speed. If the option of skilling-up is no longer available, this increases the risk of large scale un- or under-employment. The wage premium for those occupying skilled positions could explode, further widening wage differentials. And labour’s share of the pie could fall even more dramatically than in the past. On this view, the tree would be so thoroughly hollowed-out that it may no longer be able to support itself.
On interest rates, Haldane reiterated his reasons for voting to keep rates on hold.
"My view is that the case for raising interest rates is still some way from being made. Whatever the reason, the economic aircraft appears to be losing speed on the runway. That is an awkward, indeed risky, time to be contemplating take-off," he said.
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