With less than three weeks until voters go to the polls, is Donald Trump now too far behind to win?
Ed Bowsher, deputy editor at Share Radio, says Yes.
I said back in January that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump and I haven’t changed my mind. Trump’s comments on women have been very damaging and his victory next month is extremely unlikely. Clinton’s average poll lead over Trump is now 7 per cent, according to RealClearPolitics, and it’s very hard for any candidate to make up such a large deficit so close to the election. Granted, polls are tight in the important battleground state of Ohio, but Clinton is in a much stronger position in most other battlegrounds and she’s moved some traditionally Republican states, such as Arizona, into the “toss up” column. What’s more, Clinton has a far better “get out the vote” organisation in the crucial battleground states, and Trump’s recent rows with his party leadership have only made that situation worse. And his ridiculous claims that the election is “rigged” suggest he knows that he’s beaten. Thankfully, Trump has blown it and it’s hard to see how Hillary can lose.
Rachel Cunliffe, deputy editor of Reaction, says No.
There’s no such thing as a sure result – just ask the dozens of political pundits who watched in astonishment as the hung parliament they’d all predicted morphed into a Tory majority in the UK 2015 election. The US presidential race is actually over 50 individual elections, making it even harder to get a clear overall picture. Hillary Clinton leads in some key battleground states, but others – like Ohio and North Carolina – remain tight. Most polls also assume this is a two-way race – it isn’t. The release of Clinton’s Wall Street speeches won’t send leftwing Democrats to Donald Trump, but voters might turn to Green Party candidate Jill Stein in protest, curbing Clinton’s lead. Then there’s WikiLeaks’ attempt to destroy Clinton (with the help of Russian hackers). All it would take is one damning revelation close to 8 November, or another terror attack whipping up anti-Muslim sentiment, to hand Trump an unexpected victory. Trump is imploding, but polls are fickle, voters lie, and anything could still happen.