Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour leader – and will still be losing elections – in 2020 unless MPs get their act together
1985. Margaret Thatcher was in Downing Street. David Cameron was in the Bullingdon Club. Everton were League Champions. And Jeremy Corbyn? Well, he was exactly where he is now, serving as MP for Islington North.
1985 was also the last time the main Opposition party failed to make gains in May’s annual council elections, other than in years when they have coincided with a General Election. But that is the “achievement” Corbyn managed to pull off last week, with the net loss of 24 seats across the country.
Beyond the headline losses, low turnouts in Labour areas betray as myth the idea that Corbyn can reach parts of the electorate that others cannot. While he inspired tens of thousands to join the Labour party, there is no evidence that he can motivate those that don’t usually vote towards the ballot box.
In Scotland, the story is even worse. Although the SNP victory was universally expected, falling into third behind the Conservatives was the party’s worst nightmare. The Corbynistas argued that Labour lost Scotland in 2015 because they were not left-wing enough. So they must now explain why 2016’s markedly leftist manifesto produced an even worse result than the more mainstream one of last year.
So why isn’t the Labour leader under even more heat this morning?
Clearly Sadiq Khan’s win in London helps a bit, although mayoral races are much more about the individual than the party. And in many ways, as a senior Labour backbencher put it to me over the weekend, Sadiq shows what can be achieved by a proper leader offering the electorate policies relevant for today, not 30 years ago. Khan spent the entire campaign dissociating himself from the party leader, and his mayoralty offers risks for Corbyn. Sadiq can demonstrate a model of a successful, popular, moderate and pragmatic leadership, neither New Labour nor Old, and certainly not Corbynite. When they are reminded of successful Labour political leadership in action, Labour members might just like the look of it.
But more important to the general perception of last week is the iron rule of local elections – they’re less about the actual results, and all about expectation management. Corbyn’s critics said the party needed to brace itself for 150 losses and, in doing so, they overplayed their hand, allowing the results to be seen as “better than expected”.
The tough reality for Labour is that Corbyn’s support among the membership remains strong. While most MPs would drop him in a heartbeat, they know that right now he would likely win the leadership contest that would result. So even though at one point the plan was for a leadership challenge this summer, it is now less clear whether that will go ahead.
Another factor helping Corbyn is the EU referendum. His biggest critics tend to coincide with the most passionate advocates of Remain, and there is little appetite right now to rock the boat and distract from efforts to keep Britain in Europe.
Ultimately, the time will come for Labour MPs to “put up or shut up”, as shadow chancellor John McDonnell put it on Friday. They can wait until after 23 June if they like, but only MPs have the power – and indeed responsibility – to do everything possible to give Labour a leader who could actually win a General Election.
Conservative MPs acted quickly against Iain Duncan Smith, despite his mandate from the membership. Labour MPs now need to act similarly. Otherwise, the man who was around back in 1985 will still be standing, and still be losing, in 2020.