Investor sentiment in City upbeat as Trump hints at orderly transfer of power
Despite the lacklustre start to this week’s trading, investor sentiment in the City and beyond is certainly becoming much less pessimistic. This renewed push appears to have come about as a result of overnight events in the US, where Joe Biden is starting the transition process to a new US administration next year.
“President Trump somewhat begrudgingly makes life easier by gradually removing the various obstacles to a smooth process,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, tells City A.M. this morning.
Reports that Joe Biden has asked former Fed chairman Janet Yellen to be the next US Treasury Secretary further boost sentiment, Hewson said, adding this is raising the hope of a much more consensual approach between the central bank and US administration over the next four years.
It has also raised the prospect that Lael Brainard, who was in line to fill the US Treasury Secretary role, and who currently sits on the Fed board, could well become the next Fed chair when current incumbent Jerome Powell’s term comes up for renewal in February 2022. Some investors have construed this as the ultimate golden ticket for markets, Hewson noted.
Quarantine rules eased
The news that some quarantine rules could get eased to six days from 15 December if passengers pay for a coronavirus test that comes back negative has been welcomed by the travel sector, sending the likes of Air France, Lufthansa and EasyJet higher this morning.
Talk of a health passport from IATA also appears to be gaining traction, as a possible solution to unlocking the various border restrictions caused by the pandemic, particularly on long haul flights, Hewson said.
“This would work in conjunction with a vaccine program, allowing passengers to avoid extended quarantine times if they have had a vaccine and is cross checked on their passport,” he noted.
However, this seems highly ambitious and not a little dystopian, and is likely to present a number of significant civil liberties obstacles, he said, warning it could undergo “some significant pushback, but it does appear to speak to a direction of travel in the context of a return to getting the aviation sector back in the air, pun intended.”
Higher oil prices and a more optimistic outlook are also helping the likes of BP and Royal Dutch Shell this morning, while, on the company’s front, the full year numbers from Compass Group has seen revenues fall sharply over the year, with sports and leisure taking the biggest hit due to the various closures of sports and leisure venues.
Across the pond
US markets look set to carry on from where they left off last night, opening higher with the S&P500 set to have another look above the 3,600 level.
The US dollar has come under pressure again on the back of the more positive outlook for risk, as well as the prospect that “a new US administration could well be less US dollar friendly, when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy,” Hewson said.
On the data front the latest US consumer confidence numbers could well be impacted by the recent surge in virus cases ahead of this week’s Thanksgiving holiday.
“Expectations are for a fairly resilient reading of 101.5, however they could well be impacted by the recent restrictions that have been imposed in places like California, New York and Chicago, with the recent announcement by Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot who urged people not to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period,” Hewson concluded.