If Ukraine falls, others will be next
Down by the harbour in the beautiful city of Tallinn lies the Seaplane Harbour museum, the exhibits of which tell the story of Estonia’s heritage and, hopefully, its future. It achieved independence only in 1920 after centuries of foreign rule – before being invaded by the Nazis, and then annexed by the Soviet Union. It achieved independence the second time only in the late 1980s; its people binding together with Lithuanians and Latvians in the Baltic Way, an unbroken human chain of more than two million people.
It has grown into a modern, outward-looking country, home to some of the continent’s most exciting start-up and scale-ups.
And it is, once again, threatened by its Russian neighbour. In the Seaplane Harbour museum, an exhibit – the only one not translated from Estonian into Cyrillic Russian – tells the story of Britain’s involvement in Estonia’s early-twentieth-century battle for independence. The Royal Navy effectively stopped Russian forces travelling by sea – not least by securing that same Tallinn harbour. Independence was achieved by Estonians; but the British role was, declares the exhibit, vital.
It is a tale worth remembering as the Russian bear once again seeks to restore its imagined greatness. The build-up of forces on Ukraine’s border is, as the Prime Minister put it yesterday, akin to Russia placing a gun to Ukraine’s head. If Putin succeeds in invading what is left of sovereign Ukraine – just as it has done in Crimea, and the Donbas, and before that in Georgia’s South Ossetia – he will turn his sights to other lands.
The European Union’s response has been craven. Britain has gone far further, but it must make clear it is willing to go further still. Sanctions must be brought early enough to be a deterrent. The Eastern flank of NATO, in the Baltics, must be further bulked up. Nobody wishes to be dragged into a war, but the best way to do that is to ensure that the cost for Vladimir Putin of starting one is simply too great.
If Ukraine falls, others will follow.