Horse Racing Betting Tips: Irish eyes will be smiling at Cheltenham yet again
AFTER one of the wettest winters on record it would be a surprise if the Cheltenham Festival were to start tomorrow on anything other than soft ground.
The forecast suggests the next few days may be unsettled with showers around, but the picture changes on an almost daily basis so the ground could dry out as the week unfolds.
For that reason, there isn’t an advantage in having any ante-post bets for later in the week, as the Gold Cup itself on Friday could still be run on heavy ground if the rain continues to fall, or a surface pushing good to soft or even good ground with three dry days.
That said, Paddy Power have unveiled a host of specials ahead of the four-day meeting and there are a few that catch the eye.
Firstly, the annual battle between Great Britain and Ireland ended in a 14-14 draw last year, but I expect the Irish to get the job done this time.
Don’t forget that in 2018 they had the Prestbury Cup wrapped up with a day to spare and that followed a 19-9 victory the year before.
When you consider you will have every Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead horse running for you, the 4/5 available with Paddy Power about an Irish victory smacks of a really good bet.
At the time of writing, Ireland are responsible for half of the 28 ante-post favourites for the meeting, but closer inspection reveals they have eight of the 10 shortest market leaders.
Another interesting market is the special on which of the 28 races will have the biggest winning SP.
That is basically which race will have the most surprising winner and it’s no shock to see the likes of the Grand Annual and County Hurdle heading Paddy Power’s list at around 8/1.
Croco Bay sprung a 66/1 headscratcher in last year’s Grand Annual, but don’t forget Eglantine Du Seuil left everyone stunned when she won the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 50/1.
That’s a race that has huge potential to throw up a surprise, with such inexperienced young mares being thrown into the cauldron-like atmosphere of Cheltenham.
Paddy Power offer 16/1 about that race producing the biggest winning SP of the meeting, and that looks worth a sporting investment.
Mullins and Elliott will bring over the best part of 100 horses between them for this year’s meeting, so it’s no surprise to see them at the top of the betting to be crowned top festival trainer.
You have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the trophy wasn’t handed over to either of them and they saddle some exciting prospects this week.
Mullins can be backed at a best-priced evens and that price is likely to come under pressure.
Elliott looks the obvious danger at 11/4, but I cannot resist having a few quid on Henry De Bromhead to break the stranglehold at 14/1 with Coral.
He may be saddling a squad half the size of either of those two big stables, but what he lacks in quantity he more than makes up for in quality.
The likes of Notebook, Honeysuckle, Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and Minella Melody are all towards the head of the market for their respective assignments, and his supporting cast are not to be sniffed at either.
He will need at least four of them to win to have any chance of being crowned top trainer, but 14/1 underestimates the strength of his team.
The jockey on board the bulk of those will be Rachael Blackmore who can be backed at 5/1 to be top festival jockey.
She had a brilliant Festival last year, has been in flying form this term and will be on all the De Bromhead hotpots.
She will pick up plenty of interesting spare rides from other yards too and looks good value to land the prize.
POINTERS
Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup 4/5 Paddy Power
Mares’ Novice Hurdle to have biggest winning SP 16/1 Paddy Power
Henry De Bromhead top trainer 14/1 Coral
Rachael Blackmore top jockey 5/1 General