Horse Racing Betting Tips: Ballydoyle set for red letter day but Watch Me worth a look in Coronation
DAYS like today scare the living daylights out of bookmakers.
It is normally Willie Mullins at Cheltenham that gives them the willies, but a short-price Aidan O’Brien-Ryan Moore treble at Royal Ascot is enough to get the finger nail biting started.
The Coronation Stakes (4.20pm) is potentially the last leg of the treble and in all honesty it’s very hard to see Hermosa being beaten.
Like Winter two years ago, she comes here having landed the English and Irish 1000 Guineas double.
Winter then took this in fine style and you’d expect Hermosa to do the same today after scooting four lengths clear of Pretty Pollyanna at the Curragh last month.
I think she probably will win, but I’d rather look for a bit of value each-way.
Jubiloso is the obvious main danger and she really could be anything, but this is a major step up and she is light on experience.
Pretty Pollyanna is another threat after her highly promising reappearance in the Irish Guineas.
However, I’m going to take a chance on the French fillies and am particularly interested in Francis-Henri Graffard’s WATCH ME, especially if there is still some cut in the ground.
This daughter of Olympic Glory won a Group Three at Maisons-Laffitte on her seasonal debut and then suffered a rough passage in the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp.
Nothing went right for her and Olivier Peslier that day, but she was still beaten less than three lengths by the winner and today’s rival Castle Lady.
She was unlucky and I don’t think she should be as big as 16/1 in the outright market, although a wiser move would be to back her each-way without Hermosa at around 8/1.
JAPAN is a hot favourite for the King Edward VII Stakes (3.05pm) and he can get the Ballydoyle bandwagon off to a flying start.
O’Brien always seems to boss these races with Galileo offspring and Japan’s respectable fourth in the Dante Stakes was quickly followed by an excellent third in the Investec Derby a few weeks ago.
The only worry is if this comes too soon for him, but a gap of 20 days shouldn’t be a major worry.
The rest of the field are miles behind on form. Private Secretary is on a four-timer, but taking on a completely different calibre of horse, as is Pondus.
Pablo Escobarr chased home Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck at Lingfield, although his rival that day was reappearing and notably weak in the betting.
Bangkok was desperately disappointing at Epsom, but if he were to bounce back he could give the favourite something to think about.
Japan is the one, though, and looks the most solid of the Ballydoyle three to me. Take the 5/4 with Ladbrokes.
Ten Sovereigns is the second leg in the Commonwealth Cup (3.40pm), which has surprisingly only seen nine horses declared.
Again, he should win but Jash and Hello Youmzain aren’t all that far behind him so I’ll leave this race alone.
Today’s action kicks off with the Albany Stakes (2.30pm) over six furlongs where Wesley Ward looks to hold a powerful hand with Nayibeth and Chili Petin.
I generally try to take on his horses as it’s so difficult to weigh up the form, while the majority of his Royal Ascot winners have been over the minimum trip.
Roger Varian’s Daahyeh is greatly feared but, with Mark Johnston’s twoyear- olds running so well this week, I’m going to take a chance on his JM JACKSON at 16/1 with Coral who are paying five places.
She has been second on both her starts over five furlongs, but the form is solid and I’m convinced she will enjoy this step up to six.
My final bet today is NONCHALANCE at 15/2 with Ladbrokes in the Sandringham Handicap (5.00pm).
John Gosden landed a big gamble in this race three years ago with Persuasive and this filly might be able to repeat the trick following decent wins at Haydock and Newmarket.
POINTERS
Jm Jackson e/w 2.30pm Royal Ascot
Japan 3.05pm Royal Ascot
Watch Me e/w (without Hermosa) 4.20pm Royal Ascot
Nonchalance e/w 5.00pm Royal Ascot