Goldman Sachs model backs England to win Euro 2020 final – but only after more nail-biting extra-time
England have a 58 per cent chance of winning the Euro 2020 final against Italy, according to Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank’s analysts have modelled the probability of football coming home on Sunday at Wembley using more than 40 years’ worth of data.
And their prediction is that England will overcome Italy and win their first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup.
It will be anothe nail-biter, however, with Goldman forecasting that England win 2-1 after extra-time – as they did against Denmark on Wednesday.
“For the final on Sunday our model predicts a close call and sees a 58% chance of England winning a major tournament for the first time since 1966,” Goldman analysts said in a research note.
England have been Goldman Sachs’ favourite to win Euro 2020 since reaching the semi-finals.
The model used by Goldman Sachs also correctly predicted that England would beat old enemies Germany in the last 16.
The bank’s original tip was Belgium, who lost to Italy in the quarter-finals.
Italy, who are coached by Premier League-winning former Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini, are on a 33-match unbeaten run.
They have won the European Championship once before, as hosts of the tournament in 1968.
England have benefited from playing most of their Euro 2020 matches at Wembley. The stadium is one of 11 venues across Europe staging the tournament.
They will have home advantage again on Sunday as they look to complete a glorious Euro 2020 campaign.
However, Goldman’s analysts have a word of caution for those already preparing the bunting.
“The forecasts remain highly uncertain, even with the fanciest statistical techniques,” they wrote in a pre-tournament report. “This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch.”