Global fossil fuel demand to peak ‘in the coming years’, IEA says
Global demand for fossil fuels is “set to hit a peak in the coming years” and gradually decline thereafter as the world pivots towards renewable energy sources, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.
The “relentless growth” of the three major fossil fuels – oil, coal and natural gas – is predicted to “come to an end this decade”, Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, wrote in the Financial Times today.
“The global trends are clear: low-emissions electricity and fuels, as well as energy efficiency improvements, are increasingly taking care of the world’s rising energy needs,” Birol said.
He said the expected shift in demand for fossil fuels is being driven by the growth of clean energy technologies, structural shifts in China’s economy and the ramifications of the recent global energy crisis.
“In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, the impressive growth of renewables and nuclear power, alongside a slower economy, point to a decrease in coal use soon,” he said.
“Our latest projections show that the growth of electric vehicles around the world, especially in China, means oil demand is on course to peak before 2030,” he added.
He also said that the golden age of gas “is nearing an end”, with Europe radically shifting away from gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Birol said, however, that the expected declines in demand “won’t be linear”, adding, for example, that “heatwaves and droughts can cause temporary jumps in coal demand by pushing up electricity use”.
While the forecasted peak in demand for fossil fuels was a “welcoming sight,” he warned that there was still more to do.
“The projected declines in demand we see based on today’s policy settings are nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5C,” he said. “That will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments.”