General election: Tories to have lower primary vote than in 2017, new poll warns
Pollsters who correctly predicted President Donald Trump have forecast that the Tories will win fewer votes tomorrow than under Theresa May in 2017’s disastrous election.
Polling from FTI Research predicts the Conservatives’ primary vote will fall from 42.4 per cent in 2017 to 40 per cent in tomorrow’s General Election.
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However, the news isn’t all bad for the Tories – the polling also predicts Labour’s vote will decrease by five points to 35 per cent.
FTI predicts the Liberal Democrats will win 10 per cent of the vote, while the Brexit Party flounders on six per cent.
The polling also predicted that Remain voters will abandon the Liberal Democrats and flock to Labour.
Fifty per cent of Remainers will vote for Labour, while just 15 per cent will go with the Lib Dems, according to the survey.
FTI’s survey also had some other more offbeat findings.
It suggested that people who intend to vote Labour are more likely to be discouraged to vote and are particularly susceptible to staying home with a hangover.
Other insights include the fact that 37 per cent of voters will make their choice to spite a different party leader and that “a financial incentive of just over £11,000 would encourage voters to change their vote”.
The polling makes no prediction on seat counts, however the vaunted YouGov MRP poll last night predicted the Conservatives would win 339 seats for a majority of 28 seats.
The poll, which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, suggests Labour will win 231 seats.
Read more: Election 2019: The many losers, and occasional winers, of the campaign
This shows the Conservatives’ lead narrowing after the same poll just two weeks ago predicted a 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson.
The Labour fightback saw the party regain key marginal constituencies, such as Workington, West Bromwich East and Kensington