General Election: New polling shows anything from huge Conservative majority to a hung parliament
Four different polls released this weekend all show Boris Johnson’s Conservative party leading Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party – but the chance of a hung parliament remains on a knife-edge.
The polls give the Tories leads between eight and 15 points, just days out from the 12 December General Election.
Even if the Conservatives lead Labour by eight points, as found by the Savanta ComRes poll out last night, Johnson cannot count on winning the majority in parliament, especially if voters choose to put aside their usual allegiances this General Election to vote tactically over Brexit.
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That poll has the Tories on 41 per cent, to Labour’s 33 per cent, with the Lib Dems third on 13 per cent.
However, an Ipsos-Mori poll also out yesterday had the Conservatives on 44 per cent, the Labour party on 32 per cent, and Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent.
Savanta ComRes’ head of politics Chris Hopkins, said the final few days of the campaign could be crucial.
“The margins are incredibly tight,” he said. “The Conservative lead over Labour dropping or increasing by one or two points could be the difference between a hung parliament and a sizeable Conservative majority.”
The Prime Minister indicated in a speech on Sunday that the General Election results was far from certain, even with only a few days of campaigning left.
“We are now in the final furlong of this race and that is when of course the horses can still change place,” Johnson said in a campaign speech. “We are still not quite there yet and do not forget what happened in 2017. This is a close fought election.”
The Sunday Times said a poll by Datapraxis, using the MRP model and based on 500,000 online interviews, predicted Johnson would win a Commons majority of 38 on Thursday – but that’s down from a projection of a 48-seat majority two weeks ago.
“We have never seen as many undecided voters this late in the campaign,” Datapraxis boss Paul Hilder said. “As many as 80-90 constituencies are still up for grabs. A much larger Conservative landslide is still possible – but so is a hung parliament.”