Frankie won’t be Blue
FINDING the winner of the Investec Oaks is no easy task, as Look Here proved when surprising everyone at 33/1 a couple of years ago. This afternoon’s renewal (4.05pm) is no different as a number of the fillies have the potential, and in some cases the breeding, to win it, but haven’t shown enough on the track yet to prove they are up to Group 1 level.
In races like this, I always try to find reasons to take on the favourite rather than back it and initially I wasn’t overly impressed with BLUE BUNTING in the 1,000 Guineas. However, in hindsight, she actually did really well to win that day as she is bred to be at her most effective over longer trips.
Mahmood Al Zarooni’s filly has only been beaten once in four career starts and although she can’t exactly be called great value at 2/1 with William Hill, she is still easily the most likely winner; and has that all-important Group 1 form in the book.
Aidan O’Brien always has to be respected at this level and I have a slight preference for Misty For Me over Wonder Of Wonders. The former won the Irish 1,000 Guineas well last time and is a three-time Group 1 winner. However, there is plenty of speed on the dam’s side and there must be a major doubt that she’ll stay this extra half mile.
Wonder Of Wonders was impressive in the Cheshire Oaks, but that looked a weak race, and although her breeding suggests she will relish this trip, she is too short at 4/1 with William Hill for what she has achieved on the track.
Havant would be a major player if the rain came, but that looks unlikely, and both Dancing Rain and Zain Al Boldan would need to have improved dramatically. The same is true of John Dunlop’s BEATRICE AURORE, but I was very impressed with the way she travelled and went through the gap at Goodwood in the Height Of Fashion Stakes last time.
Incidentally, that was the same race won by last year’s Oaks heroine Snow Fairy. She is a 16/1 shot with Paddy Power and that is a fair enough price, although I would also advise taking some of the 12/1 available with Stan James in the ‘without Blue Bunting’ market.
Looking elsewhere on Epsom’s card and all eyes will be on the Aidan O’Brien-trained St Nicholas Abbey in the Investec Coronation Cup (2.45pm). However, he has to concede weight to the top class MIDDAY and I fancy Henry Cecil’s mare to come out on top at 6/4 with William Hill. She finished an excellent second to Sariska in the 2009 Oaks and has since won five Group or Grade 1 contests.
Epsom is a unique course and horses that perform well here invariably do so again and again, which is why I’m interested in Mark Johnston’s TARTAN GIGHA in the Investec Mile at 2.05pm. The six-year-old has won this race for the last two years and is 6lb lower than when coming with a withering late run to collar Set The Trend on the line 12 months ago.
The Investec Investment Stakes (3.25pm) looks very competitive and there doesn’t seem to be an awful lot between those at the head of the market. However, John Gosden’s DHAAMER is unexposed, having raced only four times in his life, and he has won both times he has tried this 10 furlong trip.
Away from Epsom, make sure you don’t miss Richard Hannon’s CAMPANOLOGY in the first at Doncaster this evening (6.05pm). The son of Royal Applause is reportedly very well regarded at home and he is expected to win on debut. I also wouldn’t put anyone off having a few quid on the former Hannon inmate PLUME in the last at Goodwood (8.55pm). She was the ante-post winter favourite for last year’s 1,000 Guineas, but has had some problems and the move to Roger Teal’s Epsom yard could pay off first time out.
IN-RUNNING TRADING HINTS
THIS afternoon’s Investec Oaks is packed with a number of unexposed fillies tackling a mile and a half for the first time, so finding an in-play edge certainly isn’t easy.
The most interesting trading opportunity may well involve the Aidan O’Brien trained Wonder Of Wonders who won the Cheshire Oaks convincingly having been caught flat-footed half a mile from home.
She looks perfect lay-to-back material at the current 5.0 on Betdaq as she may struggle to hold her pitch at around the same point.
However, she came home with a wet sail that day and there won’t be many finishing stronger.
If you lay her pre-race at her current mark and then request a ‘back’ at around double the price (to the same stake), you should be sitting on a nice free bet at the business end.
Looking at the rest of the field and I would be keen to lay Wonder Of Wonders’ stablemate Misty For Me at short odds late on. She battled really well to beat Together in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but her breeding suggests there are massive stamina doubts and she could get found out in the final two furlongs.
Possible back-to-lays include Beatrice Aurore and Zain Al Boldan who both travelled really well in their prep races at Goodwood and Lingfield respectively. If they are well-positioned, just off the pace, then they could trade much shorter than their SP.
The same can also be said of Blaise Chorus who had Wonder Of Wonders in trouble last time when pouring it on from the front. Yes, she is unlikely to get such an uncontested lead this afternoon, but it would be no surprise if her price got down to much lower than the current 128.0 on offer on the Daq.
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