FOREX ANALYST PICKS
CURRENCY STRATEGIST
DAVID RODRIGUEZ
My pick: Short Aussie dollar-US dollar below $0.8900
Expertise: Algorithmic trading
Average time frame of trades: 2-10 weeks
I am a market bear, and believe that the S&P 500 still has further to fall. In line with this view, I remain bearish commodity currencies, especially the Australian dollar, because they tend to be extremely risk sensitive. Due to this I think that the Australian dollar will fall against the safe-haven US dollar. There is a resistance level at $0.8900, which is where I would like to go short. I will target $0.81 as a minimum.
CURRENCY STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short S&P 500 at 1,050 and short euro-US dollar below $1.2500
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day-1 week
An unusual break between a sharp drop in risk appetite and a rally in the euro this past week was unexpected, since the euro typically follows equity markets lower. Even so, I am looking for the euro/risk trade to resume. I am looking to sell the S&P 500 at 1,050, with a stop at 1,075. I will target 925. Coupled with this, I expect the euro to fall and will short the euro against the US dollar below $1.25. I will put in place a stop at $1.2650, and I will target $1.19.
CURRENCY STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Short euro-US dollar (pending market movement)
Expertise: Global macro, classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months
Euro-dollar looks to be putting in a head-and-shoulders bottom chart formation. This will be confirmed on daily close at $1.2570, whcih is the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the December to July downswing. Initial upside targets are seen at $1.2785 and $1.30, the 50 per cent and 61.8 per cent retracement levels, respectively. On balance, my long term bias for the pair remains bearish, and I look for any periods of euro strength as good selling opportunities for the future.