Explainer: Why Erdoğan refuses to let Sweden join NATO
This is a big week in foreign policy. Rishi Sunak is preparing for his trip to Moldova tomorrow, to attend the European Political Community Summit, where he hopes to talk about migration and support for Ukraine. Yet with the newly re-elected Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also invited, there’s another issue that might overshadow the Summit, something sending NATO members into a frenzy: the possibility of Swedish accession into the military alliance.
After Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago, Swedish and Finland decided it was time to abandon their position of neutrality and requested to enter NATO. Finland is now part of the pack, but Sweden’s entry has been blocked by Turkey and Hungary.
The most vocal opponent is undoubtedly Erdoğan. He accuses Sweden of providing a safe haven to individuals connected with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist group by Turkey.
The Turkish president has said he won’t allow Sweden into the alliance until the Nordic country does more to combat terrorism. Sweden took him seriously; and so on Thursday, it will introduce a new anti-terror law that makes it illegal to participate in a terrorist organisation in any way – including promoting it, supporting it financially, providing logistics or organising events. Sweden considers it “the last part” of the agreement needed to secure Turkey’s approval.
As it often is in foreign policy, however, things are slightly more complicated than they look. Indeed, Erdoğan wants something more in return – and most of it has to do with his relationship with the West more broadly, rather than with Sweden specifically. The Turkish president is said to want to be invited by Joe Biden to the White House, something that hasn’t materialised yet. The US president called Erdoğan on Monday to congratulate him for his victory in the election, and confirmed they spoke about the Swedish issue.
The Turkish president also wants to buy up to $20bn worth of F-16 fighter jets from the US, but some members of Congress oppose this. Turkey says it will lift the veto on Swedish accession once it gets the fighter jets; the Biden administration says Turkey will get the fighter jets after lifting the veto. It’s a chicken and egg type of situation. The US is desperately trying to pretend the sale shouldn’t be linked to NATO enlargement, but no member state really believes it.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that it was “absolutely possible” for Sweden to join the alliance by the time the Vilnius summit takes place in July. If Turkey holds its stance and doesn’t allow Sweden in, relations between Erdoğan and the other NATO members could become more tense.