Experts are vital, but so is scepticism and debate – take it from the Bank of England’s Minouche Shafik
Experts have come in for plenty of stick over the past 12 months.
Michael Gove’s infamous assertion during the referendum campaign that “people have had enough” of them has entered political legend. His actual quote is overlooked: he was specifically criticising experts who worked at “organisations with acronyms” and who were “consistently getting it wrong”.
So, Gove’s criticism was in fact aimed at experts who presented with certainty but who in fact ended up wide of the mark. This label applies to most people who put their head above the parapet in the field of economic forecasting.
Read more: BoE official lashes out at online "echo chambers" and "fake news"
Gove may find an unlikely ally in Bank of England deputy governor Minouche Shafik, who last night called for experts to “embrace uncertainty… rather than pretending to be certain and frequently getting it wrong”.
Her colleague, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, blazed a trail on Threadneedle St in suggesting that economists should demonstrate some humility, and Minouche’s proposition is a welcome addition to a profession that needs to recognise the limits of its own soothsaying ability.
But she goes further, and makes a robust defence of the wider role of experts in society – and is right to do so. “The application of expert knowledge,” she said, “has improved life expectancy, tackled diseases and reduced poverty.”
Read more: Mark Carney wants to shake off the "dreaded experts" tag and cut jargon
The problem lies not in the work or opinions of experts, but in the notion that their projections are somehow guaranteed. The waters are muddied when politicians or advocates of a certain side seize upon seemingly convenient expert analysis to confer certainty on a point of view.
On this point, Minouche highlights the growing trend to seek only the views with which we already agree – “echo chambers of the like-minded” – as she puts it. On social media and in shrill political debate, the temptation to inhabit such a space is particularly attractive.
But if we are to get the most of the undoubted benefits of the judgement of experts, we must retain a scepticism that is, these days, easily replaced by an unwarranted certainty.
Read more: Economists see central bank independence under threat
Experts themselves can help to address this issue by declaring conflicts of interest, subjecting findings to peer review and publishing data and funding sources.
More importantly, the outgoing deputy governor calls on us to “listen to the other side… and engage with views that are different from our own”.
This is one expert we should all listen to.