Experts split on impact of Farage’s decision to stand-down candidates
Pollsters and Westminster strategists were split this afternoon over the impact of Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage’s decision not to stand candidates in 317 seats currently held by Conservatives.
Whilst there had been calls for Farage to stand down candidates across the country, his party will continue to fight in seats held by the Lib Dems and crucially Labour. The Conservatives’ election strategy is widely believed to rest on winning seats away from Jeremy Corbyn in Leave-voting Labour-held seats.
Sterling had risen on the news, as the City surmised the decision would lessen the chances of a hung parliament.
Read more: Farage stands down candidates against Tories
YouGov, the polling outfit, said the move was “unlikely to be a game-changing moment” unless Farage’s tacit support for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal changes the perception of voting Tory amongst so-called ‘hard leavers.’
“The most important swing to look at in the polls is the swing between Labour and the Conservatives,” said the firm’s Political Research Manager Chris Curtis.
“Despite a move away from two party politics since the last election, it is still the case that most marginal seats are Labour / Conservative battles and this is the most important dynamic in deciding who will be celebrating Christmas in 10 Downing Street.”
Other pollsters struck a more measured tone. Joe Twyman, Co-Founder and Director of Deltapoll, told City A.M. that the Tories will be hoping the decision might hold the key to electoral success.
But Twyman warned “the swing needed to the Conservatives in Labour-held, leave-leaning constituencies needs to be large by historical standards if they are going to win any more than a handful of those seats.
“Such constituencies may lean towards Leave but in many cases the majority of Labour voters will have voted Remain,” he added, meaning that the Tory strategy to hoover up votes from disaffected Labour leave voters may not pay off.
But Nick Faith, co-founder of WPI Strategy and an Advisory Board Member of influential Tory think-tank Onward, was more optimistic.
“There is now a clearer pathway to a Conservative majority but the journey still remains perilous. Farage’s decision not to stand candidates in seats won by the Tories in 2017 will boost the latter’s chances of holding those areas,” he told City A.M.
“It could also help squeeze the Brexit Party in Labour held, leave voting marginal seats, as it becomes even clearer to the public that Boris – and a Conservative majority – is the only possible route to delivering Brexit.”