ECONOMIST VIEWS: WHAT WILL THE BREAKDOWN OF GDP GROWTH IN THE SECOND QUARTER TELL US?
PETER DIXON | COMMERZBANK
“We look for quarterly GDP growth to remain unchanged, although we do expect a strong positive contribution from consumer spending while fixed investment should give back some of its strong first quarter gains. We also expect a moderate positive contribution from net trade.”
PHILIP SHAW | INVESTEC
“The actual figure should remain unchanged but the expenditure details are more important. They will provide clues to the shape and duration of the recovery. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a greater contribution from stocks this time, confirming that the second quarter growth surge was temporary.”
JONATHAN LOYNES | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“The breakdown of growth by expenditure components is likely to reveal that growth was again heavily dependent on consumers and the government. The monthly trade data suggests that net trade may have made at least some positive contribution. But with investment likely to have fallen, evidence of the long-awaited rebalancing of the economy will be fairly limited.”