‘Don’t laugh: England can win the Six Nations’
You’ll laugh at me when I say it – in fact you might disqualify me entirely from having opinions on rugby – but I genuinely believe that England have a viable path to this year’s Six Nations title.
Hear me out: Steve Borthwick has a much-changed squad but he has, arguably, the most continuity out of the half-dozen competing sides.
Ireland are without linchpin Johnny Sexton and France have an absent Antoine Dupont, Italy are in a new coaching era and Scotland are lacking in confidence. To top it all off, Warren Gatland’s Wales are relatively inexperienced and without the likes of Dan Biggar and Alun Wyn Jones.
England run for the title?
It all sets itself up for an England run for the title. I don’t think they will win the Grand Slam – a loss to France in the final round is almost a certainty – but they could get to matchday five unbeaten.
Backing rookie fly-half Fin Smith during this tournament would be smart. He is one of the form Premiership No10s and his catalogue of big-game performances is only growing.
But George Ford is the 91-cap safety net. He will be in the side throughout the tournament to stabilise the ship from the get-go given his experience.
England start their campaign away to Italy this weekend and it is a match in which they’ll be eager to lay down a marker.
The Azzurri came close to an historic win against France last year and will be hoping for similar opportunities against England.
If the match was at Twickenham I’d have backed Borthwick to go all out on a new-look England, but given the circumstances of being away in Rome and without the likes of Owen Farrell and Marcus Smith, he’ll likely play it slightly safer than many would expect.
But that is smart; the England head coach needs the win first and foremost and too many uncapped newbies in the squad could be the difference between a bonus-point victory and a narrow loss. England have never lost to Italy, remember.
Starting strong
After the trip to Rome, England host Wales at home – a match they should win comfortably.
I like what Gatland is doing, a complete reset after the World Cup, but it has lowered their average squad age down significantly and has bolstered it with a lot of inexperienced players.
But if Borthwick gets that right he will be two from two alongside at least one of Ireland, France or Scotland – whom England face in their last three matches – after the first fortnight.
From there they can look at it like knockout rugby, something those other three sides failed to succeed at in the Rugby World Cup last year.
It would need the wind blowing in their favour but it is, incredible as it may seem, entirely possible for England to reach the final weekend of the Six Nations with the Grand Slam on the line. I think they’ll just miss out, but the path is there.
England’s major advantage is being the team of least resistance – there’s little change in very key areas like there is with other teams.
I’m not saying we will spend the next seven weeks adoring the way England play, and hopefully a revolution in that department will come, but it could see the return of a winning England in the Six Nations which fans have been starved of.
Italy will pose the first hurdle to that dream, but I am not putting my house on them doing a job over England.
Former England Sevens Captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development behavioural change and executive coaching support. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn @OlliePhillips11