Debate: Is the Brexit Party losing momentum?
Debate: Is the Brexit Party losing momentum?
Yes – Olivia Utley is deputy editor at TheArticle.
After a terrific performance in the European Elections at the end of May, the Brexit Party looked to be unstoppable. Week after week it topped the Westminster voting intention polls, and talk of the Conservatives being wiped out at the next election was rife.
A month on, and Nigel Farage’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. In a recent voting intention poll for YouGov, the Brexit Party was down four per cent – from 26 per cent to 22 per cent – and the trend looks set
to continue.
The reason, of course, is Boris Johnson. The runaway favourite in the Conservative leadership contest has hardened his Brexit position, and now says that the UK will leave the EU “do or die” on Halloween. Even the most ardent Leavers can hardly argue with that, and many are now flocking back to the Conservatives.
If Boris self-destructs and former Remainer Jeremy Hunt becomes Prime Minister, expect another huge surge in support for Farage. For now, though, the Brexit Party flame seems to be slowly fizzling out.
No – Hugh Bennett is news editor at Guido Fawkes.
Obviously the Brexit Party hasn’t been on the front pages as much in recent weeks, with the Tory leadership contest taking centre stage. But it will nonetheless remain a considerable electoral force for one simple reason: Brexit has not been delivered yet.
On the basis of current polling, both the Conservatives and Labour would lose vast swathes of seats to the Brexit Party if a General Election were to take place now – something which certainly cannot be ruled out this year given the Tories’ wafer-thin working majority in parliament and MPs already plotting rebellions against the new leader.
Ultimately, the Brexit Party’s destiny is largely not in its own hands but in the hands of the next Tory leader.
If the new Prime Minister succeeds in getting Brexit over the line by the end of October, he will likely win back the support of the vast majority of Brexit Party supporters.
However, if he fails and is forced into the humiliation of seeking yet another extension, the Brexit Party will reap the rewards electorally.
As Nigel Farage said about Boris Johnson just this week: “I could be his best friend or his worst enemy. It’s up to him.”