![](https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Schroders-5907888cc8057-5b76aca6b2292-1.png?w=50)
Cutting the ‘Hemline Index’ down to size
Created by economist George Taylor just three years ahead of the 1929 Wall Street Crash, his theory of the on the so-called ‘Hemline Index’ holds that when share prices go up, so do hemlines.
By the same token, during tougher economic periods, skirts and dresses get longer.
The original thinking seems to have run that, when women had more money and could thus afford to buy stockings, they wanted to be able to show them off and so skirts became shorter.
Whatever its precise origins among the short dresses of the Roaring Twenties, though, the fashion for miniskirts in the prosperous 1960s and rah-rah skirts in the Reagan boom years of the 1980s seemed to add weight to Taylor’s theory.
Correlation, not causation?
We have illustrated in articles such as Should Nicholas Cage retire? and Tangled up with blue, that we are deeply sceptical of correlations that have no causal link.
As it turns out, however, two Dutch economists crunched the data between 1921 and 2010 and found there was indeed a link – the only problem being that hemline lengths actually lag the market by some three years.
Quite aside from our usual arguments about spurious correlations where no causation exists, therefore, clearly any kind of economic indicator that lags what it is supposed to be indicating is of no practical use.
In fact, the same can usually be said of an indicator that precedes events – after all, if any kind of clear of relationship is shown to exist, then the market will already have discounted it.
In other words, the knowledge will already be built into stock prices and, as we always argue, the price you pay for a stock, not the growth your receive, is the biggest driver of future returns.
And speaking of the future leads on to our final point – the future is uncertain and therefore impossible to predict.
Economics matters but, whatever happens to be the fashion, there are no cheats to help forecast economic data in any reliable way.
- Ben Arnold is an author on The Value Perspective, a blog about value investing. It is a long-term investing approach which focuses on exploiting swings in stock market sentiment, targeting companies which are valued at less than their true worth and waiting for a correction.
Important Information: The views and opinions contained herein are of those named in the article and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. The sectors and securities shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. This communication is marketing material.
This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The opinions in this document include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London, EC2Y 5AU. Registration No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.