Coronavirus: Trump’s partisan attacks could leave him vulnerable in November
Looking around the world at responses to COVID-19, generally speaking political partisanship has taken a back seat to a genuine spirit of cooperation that transcends party lines. With the general election behind us and local elections delayed, British politics can focus on the task in hand without being too guided by the immediate reaction from the voting public.
Less so in the United States, where the 3 November 2020 election looms large. Rarely since 1968 – the height of the Vietnam war, the assassination of Dr Martin Luther King and riots at the Democratic National Convention – and 1980 – the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan – has a presidential election taken place in the context of such nationwide crisis.
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With that in mind, whilst November nears, there are four trends to watch as the campaigns develop.
First, how Joe Biden positions himself. The job of the effective leader of the opposition is difficult in extraordinary times like these, when the public expects political cooperation. But how do you work together when there is an election to win?
Polling averages from RealClearPolitics provide an intriguing context. 52% of Americans approve of the President’s economic track record, 9.8% more than those who disapprove. But just 47% approve of his handling of the health crisis at hand, whilst 51% disapprove. Looking at the bigger picture, 59% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.
Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate in waiting, he must tread a fine line between scrutiny and outright opposition. But the President’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis represents a clear line of weakness and Biden will delicately build his campaign around exploiting it.
Second, the battle between Donald Trump and state Governors. The President has flexed his muscles as the federal government assists states in their responses to COVID-19. Trump recently described his authority as “total” adding “the Governors need us, one way or the other”. It is certainly the case that the sheer might of the United States government means the President is a powerful ally for governors seeking more medical equipment for their desperately overstretched hospitals.
However, the 10th Amendment to the Constitution gives Governors the power to issue orders to protect their citizens in emergencies, including those dealing with public health. Governors have already shown their willingness to work together in pursuing mitigation strategies. If they begin to circumvent the federal government, the President could act erratically by reversing the White House’s own Coronavirus guidelines and putting pressure on Republican Governors to follow suit.
Third, the scale of the President’s scraps with the press. At the mercy of a nationwide public health crisis the Constitution does not allow him to control, the President is lashing out at a familiar foe – the media. With hard data available painting a grim picture of mortality rates around the country, there is no rational reason for the media to bear the brunt of governmental failings. There is no clear sign that the President’s typical tools of showmanship and diversion will work this time around. A heightening of attacks on the mainstream media will be a clear sign that the president feels the need to create a distraction.
Last, the practical impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 race. With the long-term impact of the crisis unclear, it is difficult to accurately forecast the knock-on affect on turnout and voting intention.
Calls by Democrats to expand vote-by-mail are growing significantly. It has quickly fallen victim to partisan disagreement. Republicans have denounced it as too vulnerable to fraud. Moreover, the wider terms of the election have been gravely altered by COVID-19. For example, the key battleground state of Pennsylvania has been hit hard by the virus. It has the potential to impact the President’s route to re-election.
Donald Trump won the 2016 election with 46.1% of the vote. Since then, he has made few attempts to win over those who did not vote for him. If Governors work together across party lines to deliver effective Coronavirus responses and Joe Biden positions himself carefully, an overtly partisan ‘46% strategy’ could prove mistaken in 2020.
Ben Roback is a political consultant at Cicero/AMO