Consumer confidence edges up after hitting record low
Consumers in the UK are emerging from the last three months in a slightly more positive mood, a closely-watched industry gauge showed today, with plans to start spending again.
Consumer confidence at the end of the second quarter climbed just one percentage point to minus 17 per cent, up from a record low in the first quarter.
Many Brits used the lockdown period to boost their savings, while government-backed furloughing protected a large proportion of individual earnings.
Household disposable income sentiment reported an 11 percentage point rise, returning to the same level as this time last year according to the Deloitte Consumer Tracker.
As such consumers are preparing to part with their cash over the next three months, with intended clothing and footwear spending rising 43 percentage points on the previous quarter.
However caution remains, as sentiment around state of the economy fell a further 17 percentage points from the previous quarter to minus 88 per cent.
Confidence in job security and career progression sentiment also fell, dropping down 13 points (to minus 20 per cent) and 21 points (to minus 22 per cent) year-on-year respectively.
“Following a huge contraction in March and April, activity is seeing a post-lockdown bounce,” said Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte.
“However, with confidence about the economy at record lows and high levels of concern about jobs and health, consumer spending is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until next year at best.”
Net spending intent among Brits for the next three months is highest in the restaurant and going out categories, up quarter-on-quarter by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively.
However while 31 per cent of consumers said they would visit pubs and coffee shops within a month of reopening, the figure is lower for restaurants (22 per cent) suggesting recovery may come later in the year.
“Social distancing may slow recovery but, after many months at home, the jump in consumers wanting to drink out again suggests many are seeking a taste of ‘normality’,” said Simon Oaten, partner for hospitality and leisure at Deloitte.
Meanwhile a slower recovery in the travel industry is predicted, as intended spending on holidays and hotel stays is stuck in negative territory at minus three per cent. It is yet to reach the same level as this time last year.
Oaten continued: “With the possibility of an economic downturn and a second wave of the virus, consumers will probably remain cautious about their discretionary spending as they wait and watch.”