CITY A.M. SHADOW MPC
ALLISTER HEATH CITY A.M.
“Weak money supply growth masks the strong likelihood that the demand for money has dropped, which suggests that there is now enough liquidity in the economy. So the Bank should start winding down QE.”
SIMON WARD HENDERSON NEW STAR
“Hold rates, suspend QE. Asset price strength and pound weakness suggest excess liquidity. Sluggish broad money trends understate monetary laxity partly due to leakage abroad. More QE could trigger a currency crisis.”
GRAEME LEACH IOD
“We should maintain interest rates and QE at current levels. The economic situation remains highly uncertain and there is little good reason to adjust policy this month.”
HOWARD ARCHER IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
“No change, but I would retain a bias towards further QE. The economy may now be growing very modestly, but relapses remain possible, money supply growth is still weak and low bank lending remains a concern.”
GEORGE BUCKLEY DEUTSCHE BANK
“No change. The patchy nature of recent economic news has questioned the durability of the recovery. Next month’s forecast round will shed more light on this, but for the time being we argue for unchanged policy.”
MICHAEL SAUNDERS CITIGROUP
“The MPC will probably do nothing this month: no change in rates and discussions over whether to extend QE deferred to November, and not yet ready to decide whether to pay a lower interest rate on excess reserves.”
VICKY REDWOOD CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“It makes sense to stand pat until the current asset purchase programme is completed in November, when the Inflation Report is also due. No change this month but with a bias towards a bit more QE in November.”
TREVOR WILLIAMS LLOYDS TSB
“Hold rates and expand QE next month. Monetary policy should stay loose until it is clear that the uncertainties in the first half of 2010 will not undermine the nascent signs of recovery being seen at present.”
JAMIE DANNHAUSER LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH
“QE has helped boost gilt prices and lower corporate bond spreads. Leave the bank rate and asset purchases unchanged this month, but the bias over the next six months is for further monetary stimulation.”