The referendum is over: Let’s act like it is November 4, 2016 Brexit is about to be betrayed. Wealthy financiers have coopted unelected judges into a war on democracy, seeking to undermine the will of the people by fair means or foul. Yesterday’s High Court ruling that Parliament must decide on the triggering of Article 50 is an insult to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit, and [...]
There are silver linings to this depressing presidential election – whether Trump or Clinton wins November 3, 2016 After a gruelling year of primaries, scandals, attack ads, FBI investigations, and breaking news day-in and day-out, Americans are only four days away from choosing their next President. Now, more than ever, we all need a dose of optimism. I’m aware that feeling doesn’t come easy right now. Over the course of this election season, [...]
The Bank of England’s response to the uncomfortable dilemma of stagflation will be a key test of its credibility November 3, 2016 The Bank of England faces an uncomfortable time over the next couple of years, if its latest forecasts turn out to be broadly correct. The latest projections in the Bank’s Inflation Report published yesterday show that inflation will be pushed up by the fall in the pound and is likely to remain above the 2 per [...]
Following the High Court’s ruling on Article 50, is an early general election now a distinct possibility? November 3, 2016 Alex Morton, director at Field Consulting, says Yes. Prime Minister Theresa May should call a general election in the spring, and the High Court ruling gives her even more of an excuse to do so. The UK economy is going to turn in the next few years, regardless of Brexit. By 2017, we will be eight [...]
Parliament will now debate whether to invoke Article 50: So what? November 3, 2016 The government has taken one in the eye. This will please many observers, but I’m afraid, if you’re one of the many rejoicing on social media now, this result will be short-lived. I confess to thinking that the decision is an odd one. After all, two previous legal challenges brought by the McWhirter twins (yes, [...]
Why Trump could be in for a thumping victory November 3, 2016 As if 2016 hadn’t already provided enough reasons for investors to panic, a late narrowing of opinion polls ahead of next week’s US election is sending shivers through trading flaws. Could Donald Trump steal an incredible (and, in the opinion of many, terrifying) victory next Tuesday? It remains unlikely – but less unlikely than in recent [...]
National insurance is a complicated relic: Axe it in three simple steps November 3, 2016 If we were designing a new tax system from scratch, would anyone seriously suggest running three slightly different income tax systems at the same time? The fact that the government does precisely this is a relic of the past that has no place in a modern tax system. The combination of charges – income tax, plus employer’s [...]
Money supply growth suggests we’re still too pessimistic about the British economy November 2, 2016 The latest broad money supply M4x figures from the Bank of England (up to the end of September this year) paint a picture of an economy getting stronger, not weaker. To understand why, we need a short digression into economic theory. Broad money supply growth provides an insight into the outlook for nominal GDP growth [...]
The age of deglobalisation is here: Now we must face up to its implications November 2, 2016 Politics is never certain. Yet from Brexit and wider Eurozone disquiet, to the isolationist rhetoric permeating the US elections, one thing is clear: the former mantras of globalisation and deregulation are facing increasing opposition. Voters across the developed world are expressing the view that the benefits of operating at an international scale have been offset by [...]
As the typical UK house price rises to six times annual earnings, should young people forget about ever buying? November 2, 2016 Ben Southwood, head of research at the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. Unless something changes, few of today’s youth will ever own their own homes – there is simply not enough housing to go round. Home ownership has been falling, generation by generation. When they were 45, around 80 per cent of the cohort born in [...]