Speculation is driving the price of oil October 21, 2009 OIL’S break through to $80 per barrel earlier this week was attributed to yet another bout of dollar weakness in forex markets, or a strong gasoline inventory draw-down in the US. But looking at the truly fundamental factors – the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) spare production capacity standing at a whopping 5.5m [...]
Don’t be afraid to dip your toe in the volatile forex waters October 20, 2009 OVER recent years one market type more than any other seems to have grabbed the attention of spread betting clients – foreign exchange. At the beginning of 2009, as equity markets continued to plumb the depths and were shunned by investors, our spread betting firm saw forex overtake equities in monthly trading volume. Of course [...]
US housing results bring down stocks October 20, 2009 US stocks retreated from 12-month highs yesterday as disappointing housing and inflation data prompted investors to book recent gains despite strong results from bellwethers including Apple and Caterpillar. New construction of US homes rose less than expected in September and US producer prices posted an unexpected decline, both pointing to an anemic economic recovery. DuPont [...]
A new world of Tesco-style law for all October 20, 2009 SIX artfully stacked cans of baked beans adorn the desk of the Legal Services Board’s first chairman David Edmonds. This isn’t some clever executive desk toy nor is it evidence of a limited culinary imagination. Instead it’s a playful reference to “Tesco Law”, the shorthand for the ongoing liberalisation of the legal profession under the [...]
A poor economic backdrop will see UK stocks trail their overseas peers October 20, 2009 IT’S hard to be optimistic about Britain’s economy. It lags behind both France and Germany in exiting recession and a sharp contraction in industrial output in September cast doubt over how positive third quarter GDP data – released this Friday – will be. A slow and protracted recovery lies ahead, according to the Bank of [...]
Weaker dollar means central banks more likely to enter forex markets October 20, 2009 WATCHING for central bank intervention has once again become a critical part of following the currency markets. The Swiss National Bank has been the most active and open in its interventions, decidedly entering the forex markets whenever the Swiss franc approaches the SFr1.5 level against the euro. Equally, countries such as Singapore and Taiwan are [...]
HAWKISH FED IS BEST HOPE FOR DOLLAR October 20, 2009 BORIS SCHLOSSBERGDIRECTOR OF CURRENCY RESEARCH, GFT THIS Monday, during CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in the US, I remarked that these days it is easier to find a poor Goldman Sachs banker than to meet a dollar bull on Wall Street. But when everyone is so bearish on the currency and the trade becomes tremendously crowded, we [...]
Clever traders are looking to the future and the recovery October 20, 2009 THE PAST year will be remembered as a turbulent one for the global markets, beginning with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the nationalisation of banks, and volatility hitting record highs. Many investors were so unclear about the state of the economy that they held on to their money. However, with the FTSE over 5,000 [...]
Outlook for major currency pairs to depend on world economic recovery October 20, 2009 DURING the economic crisis, many central banks cut interest rates to near-zero and introduced further monetary expansion through asset purchase policies. With all major economies suffering from recession and little interest rate differential, currency traders looked to daily fluctuations for their profits. But with the global economy showing signs of a more entrenched recovery and [...]
FTSE hits a high but sale of Barclays shares prompts dip October 20, 2009 Britain’s top shares fell 0.7 percent yesterday, led down by banks after Qatar sold shares in Barclays while weaker-than-expected US data added to the negative sentiment. The benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 38.14 points at 5,243.40, having hit a fresh high for the year at 5,298.54 earlier in the session. Barclays fell 4.8 per cent [...]